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Elon Musk has signaled interest in auditing US gold reserves stored at Fort Knox, a Kentucky-based army installation, suggesting the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) take on the task.

Musk, known for his frequent social media interactions, replied on Saturday (February 15) when an X user said it would be ‘great’ to have Musk make sure Fort Knox’s 4,580 metric tons of gold are really there.

‘Surely it’s reviewed at least every year?’ questioned Musk.

His comment prompted a response from Senator Rand Paul (R-Ky.), who has advocated for increased transparency regarding the gold at Fort Knox for years. He signaled support for an audit with his reply, “Nope. Let’s do it.’

Speaking on ‘Fox & Friends,’ Paul said he has been trying to visit Fort Knox to verify its gold reserves for a decade. He added that he was initially granted permission during the first Trump administration, but the visit never took place.

Paul emphasized to the news outlet that verifying the existence of the site’s gold reserves is critical.

‘I think some of them may not think it needs to be audited all the time, but I think the more sunlight, the better, more transparency, the better. And also, it brings attention to the fact that gold still has value and implicitly, not explicitly, but implicitly, gold still gives value to the dollar,’ Paul said during the interview, highlighting gold’s role in global finance.

Senator Mike Lee (R-Utah) has weighed in as well, claiming he too has been denied access to Fort Knox.

Musk added in a further X post:

“Who is confirming that gold wasn’t stolen from Fort Knox? Maybe it’s there, maybe it’s not. That gold is owned by the American public! We want to know if it’s still there.’

The tech billionaire also drew further attention to the debate by posting a meme.

The last-known full audit of Fort Knox’s gold reserves occurred in 1953.

A partial review took place in 1974 when treasury officials and journalists were allowed to inspect a small portion of the gold. Since then, the facility has maintained strict no-visitor policies, with limited oversight of its holdings.

The US has the largest gold reserves in the world, with over 8,100 metric tons, according to the World Gold Council.

Fort Knox alone houses approximately 147 million troy ounces of gold, currently worth about US$426.3 billion.

While the US Department of the Treasury maintains that the gold remains intact, the absence of recent independent audits has led to speculation. The issue gained renewed attention after Australia discovered counterfeit gold in the Bank of England’s reserves, raising concerns about the authenticity of stored bullion worldwide.

Some financial analysts argue that a lack of transparency at Fort Knox could erode confidence in US gold reserves, particularly at a time when central banks worldwide are increasing their gold holdings.

As mentioned, Musk has indicated that DOGE could be tasked with conducting the audit.

The recently formed department has been involved in reviewing various government agencies, including the US Agency for International Development and the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.

Musk has not provided specific details on how DOGE would carry out the audit, or whether government approval would be required. However, his involvement has generated significant public interest, with some speculating that private sector oversight could push for more transparency in government gold reserves.

The discussion over Fort Knox’s gold reserves comes as the gold price continues to rise.

Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) has boosted its year-end gold price forecast to US$3,100 per ounce, and worries over inflation and economic instability have increased demand for the metal.

At the same time, the debate has drawn comparisons to Bitcoin, with some arguing that digital assets provide a more transparent alternative to traditional gold reserves.

Musk’s comments have fueled speculation over whether missing or mismanaged gold reserves could drive further interest in cryptocurrency as a store of value.

Securities Disclosure: I, Giann Liguid, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

This post appeared first on investingnews.com

Tuttle Capital Management has submitted regulatory filings for an exchange-traded fund (ETF) that seeks to invest in companies potentially involved in advanced technologies linked to unidentified flying objects (UFOs).

The proposed fund, called the Tuttle Capital UFO Disclosure AI Powered ETF (UFOD), will allocate the majority of its assets to aerospace and defense firms believed to have exposure to classified research and development projects.

According to documentation sent to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), UFOD is designed to track companies engaged in research that may involve technology beyond conventional scientific advances.

The fund will also take short positions against firms that could be negatively impacted by potential breakthroughs in these technologies. Overall, the ETF’s investment strategy will depend on government disclosures regarding UFO-related research and alleged technological developments.

Tuttle Capital’s CEO, Matthew Tuttle, has stated that the fund’s strategy is based on speculation about the existence and possible reverse engineering of advanced aerospace technologies.

“I’m a trader. I look at (UFOs) and I say that they’re using a power source that is light years beyond anything that we have … If our government has this technology and it’s released, that will be a game-changer,” he told the Financial Times.

The firm’s SEC filing notes that government confirmation of such technologies remains uncertain, and that market sentiment around these themes is highly speculative.

UFOD is part of a broader lineup of artificial intelligence (AI) ETFs that Tuttle Capital is developing. In addition to UFOD, the firm has filed for seven other ETFs, including those focused on AI in healthcare, quantum computing and global innovation.

Each fund will integrate AI-driven selection models to determine portfolio composition and adjust allocations.

The filing states that all eight ETFs, including UFOD, will be listed on the Cboe BZX Exchange.

Specific launch dates and expense ratios have not been disclosed at this time. The regulatory approval process and market conditions will determine the timing of their introduction.

The SEC’s review process will assess whether the proposed ETFs meet regulatory standards. The agency itself has recently seen increased filings for ETFs incorporating AI into investment decisions.

Securities Disclosure: I, Giann Liguid, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

This post appeared first on investingnews.com

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has declined a US bid to take control of half of Ukraine’s rare earth mineral rights, instead signaling his intention to pursue a more favorable deal.

The proposal, brought to Kyiv last week by American Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent, came after President Donald Trump’s controversial suggestion that the US should secure approximately US$500 billion worth of Ukraine’s critical resources in exchange for military support amid the country’s ongoing war with Russia.

The proposed agreement would have granted the US ownership of around 50 percent of Ukraine’s substantial reserves of minerals such as lithium, titanium and graphite — resources vital for high-tech industries and defense.

The deal presented by Bessent centers on repayment for past US aid, without addressing future assistance or security guarantees, a key point of concern for Zelenskyy and his administration.

Zelenskyy, alongside other Ukrainian officials, has expressed reservations over the terms of the deal.

The Ukrainian president is seeking a broader arrangement that ties the country’s mineral rights to ongoing protection.

“We are still talking,” Zelenskyy remarked during a press briefing in Munich on Saturday (February 15).

He emphasized that any agreement would need to involve not just the US, but also other international partners, including European Union countries, to ensure Ukraine’s long-term security and stability.

The lack of clear security guarantees in the proposal has raised questions in Ukrainian circles, particularly as Russian forces continue to target vital infrastructure, including eastern regions rich in mineral resources.

Bessent has defended the US proposal, saying that the presence of American forces looking to secure Ukrainian mineral deposits would serve as a deterrent to Russian aggression. This explanation has done little to reassure Ukrainian officials, who have criticized the deal for failing to offer a substantive long-term security framework.

The Financial Times reported that a senior Ukrainian official, familiar with the negotiations, described the document as “tough,” with little regard for Ukraine’s sovereignty and future needs.

Adding complexity to the negotiations, the US proposal specifies that any disputes over the mineral rights would be resolved under New York law. Ukrainian officials have expressed skepticism about the enforceability of such terms, particularly given the ongoing conflict and the difficulties of conducting business in a war-torn country.

Zelenskyy has made it clear that Ukraine will not sign any deal until further legal review and negotiations are completed.

Ukraine’s mineral sector faces significant challenges. The country’s critical minerals are located in areas heavily affected by the conflict with Russia, making extraction and development operations risky and difficult to manage.

The Zavallivsky graphite mine, for example, a vital source of the nation’s mineral wealth, has suffered from equipment shortages and workforce reductions due to the war, hindering its ability to expand production to meet potential demand.

Furthermore, industry experts have warned that large-scale extraction of Ukraine’s minerals would require significant foreign investment, which remains uncertain amid the unstable security situation. Without it, the country’s mineral reserves are likely remain underdeveloped, despite their immense potential value.

Securities Disclosure: I, Giann Liguid, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

This post appeared first on investingnews.com

Investors interested in the life science sector are well aware of the importance of biotechnology.

From finding cures for diseases to feeding future generations, many areas of day-to-day life are influenced by players in the biotechnology space, and expert projections show the industry’s future looks bright.

But how can investors gain exposure to biotechnology? Here’s a brief overview of how to invest in the expanding biotechnology market, from stocks to watch to exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

How to invest in biotechnology stocks?

The main method of investing in the biotech sector is through stocks. Right off the bat, when investing in the biotech sector it’s important to understand that there is a difference between a biotech company and a pharmaceutical company.

“From a philosophical standpoint, biotechnology is a risk-taking enterprise, while the pharmaceutical industry is about managing and diversifying risk,” Investopedia explains in an article. Notably, the publication points out that biotech stocks tend to have insignificant revenue compared to pharmaceutical stocks.

When investing in biotech, investors should also pay attention to the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA), which requires that all companies in the sector establish sufficient bodies of information to show that their drugs are safe and effective. That is generally accomplished in the clinical trial phase of product testing, which typically consists of a series of three clinical studies.

Additionally, as with most other sectors, when investing in biotechnology stocks investors must decide on the level of risk they are willing to take. For instance, a large, established biotechnology company with a multibillion-dollar market cap is less likely to succumb to bad market conditions than a more speculative, newly listed company in the clinical trial phase.

How to invest in biotechnology ETFs?

While investing in biotech stocks is generally the more popular choice when it comes to getting involved in the sector, ETFs are a way to mitigate some of the risks that are inherent with investing in stocks.

ETFs hold assets like stocks, commodities and bonds, and trade close to their net asset value. Typically, ETFs track an index. For biotechnology, there are several indexes that can be followed, including the S&P Biotech Select Industry Index (INDEXSP:SPSIBI), the NYSE Arca Biotechnology Index (INDEXNYSEGIS:BTK) and the NASDAQ Biotechnology Index (INDEXNASDAQ:NBI).

The largest ETF in the biotech sector is the SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (ARCA:XBI), which launched on February 6, 2006, and tracks 137 holdings in its portfolio. Its top three weighted companies are Crinetics Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:CRNX), Exelixis (NASDAQ:EXEL) and Dyne Therapeutics (NASDAQ:DYN).

The second largest biotech ETF is the iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology ETF (NASDAQ:IBB), which launched on February 5, 2001. This ETF tracks 218 holdings, with the top three — Gilead Sciences (NASDAQ:GILD), Amgen (NASDAQ:AMGN) and Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:REGN)— weighted at close to or over 8 percent each.

Investors may also want to consider small biotech ETFs — click here for an overview.

What’s the outlook for biotechnology?

It’s often a slow wait when it comes to gains in the biotech market as companies rely on FDA approvals and feedback.

In terms of the sector’s future outlook, Grand View Research predicts that the global biotechnology market will have a compound annual growth rate of 13.96 percent between 2024 and 2030 to reach US$3.88 trillion by the end of the forecast period.

It attributes this growth to the increasing need for new drugs to treat chronic diseases, such as strokes, cancer, asthma and hypertension. The focus is on diagnostics and therapeutic solutions for these chronic diseases. There is also increasing demand for biotechnology innovation in the agriculture sector in response to rising demand for organic food products.

For its part, Verified Market Research is forecasting the global biotechnology market will reach a value of more than US$5.25 trillion in 2030. The firm sees significant advancement and investment in research and development, the rising prevalence of infections and chronic diseases, and increasing government and regulatory support as major drivers of revenue growth for this life science sector in the coming years.

The nanotechnology drug market is a subsector of the biotech space that is also expected to see major growth in the coming years. Precendence Research forecasts that this sector will experience a CAGR of 8.13 percent between 2023 and 2032 to reach a total value of US$183.11 billion.

‘Nanotechnology is critical in the development of drug-delivery technologies that have the potential to expand the medical market,’ stated the report. ‘Nanotechnology can enhance the efficacy of medications that have failed clinical trials. It provides drug delivery systems, treatment, and management for chronic diseases like cancer, HIV/AIDS, and diabetes.’

Securities Disclosure: I, Melissa Pistilli, hold no direct investment interest in any of the companies mentioned in this article.

This post appeared first on investingnews.com

Bitcoin attracts bold predictions. Recent forecasts show that this top cryptocurrency may soon hit Bitcoin Reach $200000. Many trusted sources, including Yahoo Finance, CoinDesk, Bloomberg, and CNBC, have reported this forecast. This public news reflects rising optimism among market experts amid changing economic conditions.

Market Sentiment and Economic Drivers

Many analysts believe that economic uncertainty and rising prices create a strong chance for Bitcoin to serve as a safe asset. Investors now see Bitcoin as a reliable store of value. They shift funds to cryptocurrencies when they lose trust in traditional assets. In addition, new regulations in key markets push both large and small investors to spread their money across various assets.

Technical Analysis and Price Trends

Technical data supports a potential price surge. Long-term charts show an upward trend, while short-term drops offer good buying points. Trading volumes and network activity grow each day. Experts point to a limited supply and high demand as key reasons that Bitcoin Reach $200000 upto.

Investor Implications and Risk Management

Investors must stay alert in this volatile market. They should manage risk by diversifying their portfolios. Many experts advise reviewing holdings and allocating funds wisely. They also recommend keeping up with the latest market news and technical signals to guide decisions.

Conclusion

This forecast that Bitcoin may reach $200,000 comes from strong market sentiment, positive technical trends, and a unique economic climate. However, investors face a volatile market that demands caution. Experts urge both individual and institutional investors to monitor these trends closely and prepare for various market moves.

While reaching $200,000 is not guaranteed, this forecast offers valuable insight into the ever-changing crypto market. It shows that the market can shift quickly and that informed decisions are key. Investors should act wisely and stay updated on news and trends. By doing so, they can protect their investments and uncover new opportunities in the fast-paced world of cryptocurrencies.

The post Could Bitcoin Reach $200000? Market & Expert Insights appeared first on FinanceBrokerage.

During Mettler-Toledo’s earnings call earlier this month, executives found themselves fielding a barrage of questions about one key topic: tariffs.

The Ohio-based maker of industrial scales and laboratory equipment had already opened the call by breaking down the expected impact from President Donald Trump’s still-evolving trade policy. But when the event transitioned to the question-and-answer portion, the inquiries from analysts seeking further detail about potential tariffs were constant.

“Uncertainty remains across many of our core markets and the global economy,” Finance Chief Shawn Vadala said on the Feb. 7 call. “Geopolitical tensions remain elevated, and include the potential for new tariffs that we have not factored into our guidance.”

Mettler-Toledo’s experience wasn’t unique. America’s largest companies are getting inundated with queries about how or if Trump’s salvo of promises on issues ranging from international trade to immigration and diversity will alter businesses.

A CNBC analysis shows multiple core themes tied to Trump’s policies are popping up on the earnings calls of S&P 500-listed companies at an increasing clip. Take “tariff.” Just weeks into the new year, the frequency of the word and its variations on earnings calls hit its highest level since 2020 — the last full year of Trump’s first term.

On top of that, new acronyms and phrases, like the “Gulf of America” or “DOGE,” have found their way into these meetings as the business community assesses what Trump’s return to power means for them.

Curiously, Trump himself wasn’t racking up mentions on these calls. Many uses of the word “trump” in transcripts reviewed by CNBC referred to the verb, rather than the president.

Still, a review of call transcripts shows how key words tied to Trump’s policies have quickly become commonplace. With the first earnings season of 2025 more than 75% complete, the comments offer an early glimpse into how these companies view the new administration.

One of the most talked about policies has been Trump’s tariff plans. The president briefly implemented — and then postponed — 25% taxes on imports to the U.S. from Mexico and Canada. He also separately slapped China with a 10% levy and imposed aluminum and steel tariffs. Then, on Thursday, he discussed a plan to impose retaliatory tariffs on other trading partners on a country-by-country basis.

Given the uncertainty, it’s no surprise tariffs are a hot topic. The topic has come up on more than 190 calls held by S&P 500 companies in 2025, putting it on track to see the highest share in half of a decade.

The frequency picked up late last year as Trump’s return to the White House became clear. About half of calls in 2024 that mentioned forms of the word took place in the fourth quarter, according to a CNBC analysis of data from FactSet, a market research service.

“Studying tariffs has been at the top of the list of things that we’ve been doing,” said Marathon Petroleum CEO Maryann Mannen on the energy company’s Feb. 4 earnings call.

Several companies said they were not factoring potential impacts from these levies into their guidance, citing uncertainty about what orders will actually go into place. Others just aren’t sure: At Martin Marietta Materials, CFO James Nickolas said the supplier’s profits could either benefit or take a hit from tariffs depending on what form ultimately takes effect.

While Generac didn’t calculate how these import taxes could affect future performance, CEO Aaron Jagdfeld said the generator maker is ready to mitigate the financial hit by reducing costs elsewhere and raising its prices. Camden Property Trust CEO Richard Campo said a company analysis shows proposed tariffs would push up costs for materials from Canada and Mexico like lumber and electrical boxes. These comments offer support to the idea that Trump’s tariffs may drive up consumer prices and fan inflation.

Zebra Technologies CFO Nathan Winters said price increases could help mitigate profit pressure. Auto parts maker BorgWarner, meanwhile, anticipates another year of declining demand in certain markets, which CFO Craig Aaron attributed in part to potential headwinds from these levies.

Cisco’s R. Scott Herren agreed with other executives on the lack of clarity, describing the tariff situation as “dynamic” on the networking equipment maker’s earnings call last week. Still, the CFO said the company has planned for some variation of Trump’s tariff proposals to take effect and is expecting costs to increase as a result.

“We’ve game planned out several scenarios and steps we could take depending on what actually goes into effect,” he said.

The topic of immigration, meanwhile, has already come up on the highest share of calls since 2017.

Trump has promised mass deportations of undocumented immigrants during his second term in office. Cracking down on immigration has been a core component of Trump’s political messaging since he ran in part to “build the wall” between the U.S. and Mexico for his first term. Critics assert that his plans would shock the labor market and could result in higher inflation.

Immigration mentions tend to tick up during the first year of a new administration, CNBC data shows. But 2025 has surpassed the first years of Joe Biden’s presidency and Barack Obama’s second term, underscoring Trump’s role in elevating the issue within U.S. businesses.

Some companies grouped immigration with tariffs as drivers of broader unpredictability within the economy. Nicholas Pinchuk, CEO of toolmaker Snap-On, described anecdotes of strong demand for repair services from its clients, but said they were still stressed by red flags in the economic backdrop.

“It’s clear the techs are in a good position. But that doesn’t make them immune to the macro uncertainty around them: ongoing wars, immigration disputes, lingering inflation,” Pinchuk said. “Although the election is in the rear mirror and the new team may be more focused on business expansion, there’s a rapid fire of new initiatives. … It’s hard not to be uncertain about what’s up.”

Firms in a variety of sectors took questions about what changes in the composition of America’s population would mean. AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile all fielded questions about whether a slowdown in immigration would hurt demand for certain phone plans. Michael Manelis, operations chief at apartment manager Equity Residential, said in response to an immigration-related inquiry that it hasn’t seen any upticks in lease breaks from tenants being deported.

In the Southern California market, real estate developer Prologis CEO Hamid Moghadam said deportations can decrease the pool of workers and, in turn, drive up employment costs in the region. That can exacerbate pricing pressures already expected as the Los Angeles community rebuilds in the wake of last month’s wildfires.

Other businesses insisted deportations wouldn’t create labor shortages for their operations because all of their workers are legally authorized. One such company, chicken producer Tyson Foods, said it hasn’t had factories visited by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement or seen any declines in worker attendance.

“We’re confident that we’ll be able to continue to successfully run our business,” CEO Donnie King said on Feb. 3.

Topics that gained newfound relevance with Trump’s return to office have also already started emerging.

DOGE — the acronym for the new Department of Government Efficiency led by Tesla CEO Elon Musk — has been mentioned on more than 15 calls, as of Friday morning. This department has put Wall Street on alert as investors wonder if contracts between public companies and federal agencies could be on the chopping block with Musk’s team slashing spending.

Iron Mountain’s mine that stores government retirement records was ripped as an example of inefficiency by Musk during a visit to the Oval Office. But surprisingly, CEO Bill Meaney said the push for streamlining can actually benefit other parts of its business.

“As the government continues to drive to be more efficient, we see this as a continued opportunity for the company,” he said last week.

Executives at Palantir, the defensive technology company that was a top performer within the S&P 500 last year, are similarly hopeful. Technology Chief Shyam Sankar described Palantir’s work with the government as “operational” and “valuable,” and is hopeful that DOGE engineers will be “able to see that for a change.”

“I think DOGE is going to bring meritocracy and transparency to government, and that’s exactly what our commercial business is,” Sankar said during the company’s Feb. 3 call. “The commercial market is meritocratic and transparent, and you see the results that we have in that sort of environment. And that’s the basis of our optimism around this.”

He noted some concerns among other government software providers, and called those agreements “sacred cows of the deep state” during the call.

Elsewhere, the so-called Gulf of America has been a point of divergence after Trump’s executive order renaming what has long been known as the Gulf of Mexico. Chevron used the moniker Gulf of America repeatedly in its earnings release and on its call with analysts late last month. But Exxon Mobil, which held its earnings call the same day, opted instead to refer to the body of water as the Gulf of Mexico.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

A law firm that represents Tesla and Elon Musk has written proposed legislation that would alter Delaware corporate law, according to a person directly familiar with the drafting of the bill.

The proposed legislation, drafted by Richards, Layton & Finger, or RLF, would amend Delaware General Corporation Law, and if adopted, could pave the way for the reinstatement of Musk’s 2018 CEO pay package at Tesla, worth tens of billions of dollars in options.

RLF confirmed their involvement to CNBC.

“Statutory changes are necessary to restore the core principles that have been the hallmark of Delaware for over a century and ensure that Delaware remains the preeminent jurisdiction for incorporation,” Lisa Schmidt, president of RLF, said in a statement.

The bill was introduced in the Delaware General Assembly on Monday and would require approval by the state’s two chambers as well as Gov. Matt Meyer before it could become law.

The pay package Tesla granted to Musk in 2018 was the largest CEO compensation plan in public corporate history, but the Delaware Court of Chancery in early 2024 ordered it to be rescinded.

In her ruling, Chancellor Kathaleen McCormick wrote that the pay plan was inappropriately set by Tesla’s board, which was controlled by Musk, and that it was approved by shareholders who were misled by Tesla’s proxy materials before they were asked to vote on it.

Under the proposed legislation, Musk might no longer be considered a “controller” of Tesla, said Brian JM Quinn, a Boston College Law professor. Transactions that involve self-dealing with controllers or directors would be subject to less review than they are now, Quinn said. Those transactions range from going-private deals, to mergers and acquisitions, to board and executive compensation decisions.

“The real role of corporate law is to protect minority investors,” Quinn said. “With this bill, the legislature is saying, ‘Now, you know what? Protect them less.’”

The proposed legislation would also limit the kinds of documents that minority stakeholders are able to obtain through “books and records” inspection requests, Quinn said. Those stakeholders would be limited to formal items such as a certificate of incorporation or minutes of stockholder meetings but they’d lose access to informal communications such as emails or other messages between board members and executives, Quinn said. 

After the Court of Chancery’s ruling last year, Musk started a campaign to persuade companies not to incorporate in Delaware and moved the site of incorporation for his businesses out of the state. He has aimed his ire at McCormick with repeated and disparaging posts about her on X, his social network.

Other prominent executives, including Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong and Bill Ackman of Pershing Square, have also criticized the Delaware judiciary. 

“Delaware has taken some heat for supposedly being too hard on controller transactions,” said Renee Zaytsev, partner at Boies Schiller and co-chair of the firm’s securities and shareholder dispute practice. 

“These amendments seem to be a course correction that would make it significantly easier for boards and controllers to avoid judicial scrutiny of their transactions,” she said.

Tesla and Musk did not respond to requests for comment.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

It was another mildly bullish week as our major indices climbed very close to new, fresh all-time highs. We also saw a return to growth stocks as we approached breakout levels, which is a good signal as far as rally sustainability goes. Despite this, there remain reasons to be cautious and I’ll point out a couple of those reasons below.

Negative Divergences

The S&P 500 ($SPX) and NASDAQ 100 ($NDX) both seem to be losing bullish price momentum on their respective weekly charts, which can be seen below:

$SPX

$NDX

The price momentum on both indices is slowing and eerily similar to late 2021, just before the cyclical bear market of 2022. Let me be clear that I do NOT believe we’re heading into a cyclical bear market. I don’t see that extent of potential weakness ahead. I do see increased risks of a 5-10% drop, however, and that’s why I’m cautious.

Is This Current Rally Truly Sustainable?

Sometimes a little common sense and perspective goes a very long way. Over the last 75 years, the S&P 500 has averaged gaining 9% per year. So when you go through short-term periods that show gains well in excess of that 9% average, you should at least be thinking there’s the risk that the S&P 500 will fall back and “reversion to the mean”, which is a mathematical concept that describes the tendency of extreme results to move closer to the average. We’ve seen a tremendous rally since the summer correction of 2023. Let’s look at the last 68 weeks (since the correction low in late-October 2023) of return on both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 and compare it to the history of 68-week rates of change (ROC) to gain a sense of this current rally and its sustainability:

$SPX

$NDX

You can look at these two charts and make your own judgement and draw your own conclusions, but, outside of the late-1990s, 68-week ROCs above 50% on the S&P 500 and 60% on the NASDAQ 100 suggest a short-term pullback is more likely, not guaranteed.

Now The Good News

While bullish price action and momentum may seem to be slowing, the long-term monthly PPO on both of these indices is definitely on the rise, which, in my view, limits any short-term downside to the 20-month EMA. I’ll just show the S&P 500 monthly chart, but this will highlight the likelihood that any future selling, if it occurs (no guarantee), holds 20-month EMA support:

$SPX

This chart takes us back 25 years to the turn of the century. The yellow areas highlight poor (below zero) or declining PPOs. During these periods, I’d ignore 20-month EMA support and be cautious. However, the blank periods highlight a rising monthly PPO, during which we rarely see price fall below the rising 20-month EMA. This is where we currently stand. Most pullbacks over the last 25 years, when the monthly PPO is above zero and rising, have fallen short of actual 20-month EMA tests. In other words, we should view a 20-month EMA test as a “worst case” scenario.

The next market decline should be viewed as an OUTSTANDING opportunity to enter this secular bull market.

Stick With Strength

Since we began rolling out our Portfolios quarterly, we’ve had to overcome cyclical bear markets in Q4 2018 (trade war), March 2020 (pandemic), and the first 9-10 months of 2022 (rising inflation and rising interest rates), and a 3-month correction during the summer of 2023. We’ve remained fully invested and have CRUSHED the S&P 500. In fact, below is a graph that highlights our Model Portfolio performance since its inception in November 2018 (in the middle of the trade war!) through the end of January 2025:

We’ve demonstrated the best way to beat the S&P 500, which is to invest in leading relative strength stocks. It’s the only proven method that’s worked for us at EarningsBeats.com. We “draft” our 10 favorite relative strength stocks in various sectors and industry groups and hold them for one entire earnings cycle, then rinse and repeat. Our last quarter’s “draft” picks have annihilated the S&P 500, +15.15% vs. 3.34%.

You can check out our Model Portfolio holdings for the last 3 months below:

8 of our 10 Model Portfolio stocks outperformed the S&P 500, a few by a very wide margin. Owning relative strength stocks like PLTR, CLS, and TPR will completely carry a portfolio and lead to outstanding returns.

Our “quarterly” results are calculated over the following periods:

  • February 19 – May 19
  • May 19 – August 19
  • August 19 – November 19
  • November 19 – February 19

The reason we calculate our quarterly returns using the above time periods is that we select our stocks each quarter on February 19, May 19, August 19, and November 19. By the time we reach these dates, most key market-moving companies have reported their quarterly results and fundamental data like earnings is factored into our portfolio selections just as much as technical considerations. That fundamental/technical combination is one factor that separates us from others and we do this because my background is public accounting. I don’t stray far from my core beliefs. I believe management’s execution of their business strategies/plan and beating revenue and EPS estimates is a huge component of its stock’s upside potential.

On Monday, February 17th, we’re holding our next DRAFT. We will be announcing the 10-equal weighted stocks in each of our portfolios designed to beat the S&P 500 over the next 3-month period. You’re quite welcome to join us. It might change your way of investing and improve your results immediately. CLICK HERE for more information and to register!

Happy trading!

Tom

Shifting Sands in the Top Five

At the end of last week, there were some interesting shifts in sector positioning, though the composition of the top five remained unchanged. Let’s dive into the details and see what the Relative Rotation Graphs (RRGs) tell us about the current market dynamics.

At the close of trading on Valentine’s Day (February 14th), we saw a bit of a love-hate relationship playing out among the sectors. Here’s how they stacked up:

  1. (3) Communication Services – (XLC)*
  2. (1) Consumer Discretionary – (XLY)*
  3. (2) Financials – (XLF)*
  4. (5) Technology – (XLK)*
  5. (4) Industrials – (XLI)*
  6. (6) Utilities – (XLU)
  7. (7) Consumer Staples – (XLP)
  8. (9) Real Estate – (XLRE)*
  9. (10) Energy – (XLE)*
  10. (8) Health Care – (XLV)*
  11. (11) Materials – (XLB)

Communication Services took the top spot from Consumer Discretionary, pushing that sector down to #2 and Financials down to #3. Technology and Industrials swapped places four and five.

We also saw some reshuffling in the bottom half of the ranking. Utilities (XLU) held steady, while Consumer Staples (XLP) maintained its #7 spot. Real Estate (XLRE) and Energy (XLE) each climbed a rung, landing at #8 and #9, respectively. Health Care (XLV) tumbled from #8 to #10, and Materials (XLB) remained firmly planted in the basement at #11.

Weekly RRG: A Familiar Picture

The weekly RRG paints a similar picture to last week, with a few notable developments:

Consumer Discretionary still has the highest reading but is heading south inside the leading quadrant. Communication Services is losing some momentum but maintaining its relative strength. Despite being in the weakening quadrant, Financials has hooked back up—a positive sign. Technology is almost stationary, teetering on the edge of improving and leading.

Perhaps the most intriguing action is happening in the lagging quadrant, where most tails hook up slightly. While not all have achieved a positive heading yet, it’s a sign of potential improvement on the horizon.

Health Care is the lone wolf in the improving quadrant, a positive development. However, its low reading on the JdK RS-Ratio scale suggests it still has some work.

Daily RRG: Tech’s Time to Shine?

Switching gears to the daily RRG, we get a clearer picture of why some sectors are jockeying for position:

Technology flexes muscles with a strong, long tail in the improving quadrant.

Consumer Discretionary is heading in the opposite direction, moving into lagging territory.

Communication Services is holding onto its relative strength despite losing some momentum.

Financials, Health Care, and Materials are all in the lagging quadrant with negative headings.

Utilities are showing apparent strength, moving into the leading quadrant with gusto.

Spotlight on the Top Five

Let’s get into the trenches and examine each of our top performers:

Communication Services (XLC)

XLC is fulfilling expectations by emerging from its flag consolidation pattern and moving towards new all-time highs. It is also enhancing its standing on price and relative charts, which are bullish indicators of the sector’s ongoing supremacy.

Consumer Discretionary (XLY)

XLY is indicating some concerning trends. It has established a possible double top, which will be validated if the price falls below $218, the low from five weeks ago. The relative strength line mirrors this formation, and the RRG lines are declining. Considering its earlier strength, a notable decline may take a while to materialize, but it is certainly one to monitor closely.

Financials (XLF)

Financials are holding their ground admirably. Last week saw a break above the previous high on a closing basis — something that didn’t happen in the two weeks prior. The raw RS line also pushes against (and possibly above) its previous high. If this improvement continues, expect Financials to maintain its top-five status.

Technology (XLK)

Tech is making a comeback, overtaking Industrials for the #4 spot. Price-wise, we’re still grappling with overhead resistance around $242, but we closed at the week’s high — a positive sign. The relative strength is moving higher off the lower boundary, and RRG lines continue to climb (with a slight dip in momentum). I’m keeping a close eye on that $242 level — a break above could signal the start of a new leg up for the sector.

Industrials (XLI)

Industrials are living up to our expectations as the weakest link in the top five. It’s dropped from #4 to #5, thanks to continued weakness in relative strength. The RRG lines point lower, suggesting it’s only a matter of time before XLI drops out of the top five. Price-wise, we’re still within the rising channel, but a lower high has formed — not a great sign. Support comes in around $134 (rising support line) and $132-130 (late December low). A break below these levels could trigger a more significant decline.

Portfolio Performance Update

Despite the changing conditions, our RRG portfolio remains robust. Since its inception, it has achieved a 4.88% gain, while the SPY benchmark has only increased by 4.29%, resulting in an outperformance of 59 basis points.

#StayAlert and enjoy your long weekend. –Julius


Augustus Minerals (ASX: AUG; “Augustus” or the “Company”) is pleased to announce the results from the application of Artificial Intelligence (AI) algorithms to generate and predict gold targets within the Company’s Music Well project.

SensOre consultants have applied artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning (ML) and other processing techniques using both public and proprietary datasets over the Music Well Project.

  • Cutting edge AI/ML algorithms targeting areas with minimal outcrop or under cover.
  • Integration of geological, geochemical and geophysical data sets into the AI process to define digital mineralisation fingerprints and generate AI-enhanced gold discovery predictions.
  • The AI SensOre study concluded that “Application of ML algorithms were found to model +1m oz Au potential with a high degree of predictability, and a total of 18 targets were identified within the Music Well project”:
    • Target 1 has the highest priority and is in the central north of the project with a strike length of 8km.
    • Target 1 trends NNW parallel to the general geological fabric as well as being intersected by several WNW trending cross structures.
    • Target 2 is located 4km east of the Wonder Deeps mine of Northern Star and is adjacent to a parallel WNW trending structure hosting Vault Minerals Great Western mine.
    • Target 2 is 1.4km in strike and 800m wide.
    • No historic drilling has been recorded at any of the target areas, highlighting the underexplored nature of the Music Well project.
  • Next Steps
    • Geological mapping and sampling over these new targets are scheduled for the next two weeks to gain further insight into the new targets.
    • Results from the January rock chip sampling program are expected shortly.

Andrew Ford, GM Exploration

“The work by SensOre has focussed our attention from areas of outcrop, toward regional targets which are obscured in many cases by thin cover and sheetwash. By applying groundbreaking technologies such as artificial intelligence has enabled the rapid prioritization of multiple targets. The definition of targets reflecting a specific geophysical and geochemical response which also focuses on key mineralised structural trends provides encouragement as to the robust nature of the targeting process”.

Background:

Augustus Minerals Limited( ASX: AUG) holds the exploration licenses and applications comprising the Music Well Gold Project (“Project”) located 35km north of Leonora in the Leonora/Laverton Greenstone Belt of Western Australia.

Music Well comprises ten exploration licences covering an area of 1,345km2, making the Project one of the largest exploration packages in the region (Figures 1 and 2).

The outstanding gold endowment of the Leonora-Laverton District of >28M ounces3 is illustrated by the numerous operating gold mines including the Darlot Gold Mine (~12km to the north), the King of the Hills Mine (~20km to the west), the Leonora Gold Camp (~30km to the southwest), and the Thunderbox Gold Mine (~20km to the west).

AI Enhanced Gold Exploration

The Company commenced a gold targeting exercise with SensOre_X Pty Ltd (SensOre) in November 2024, using their Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) technologies to allow predictive analytics to generate targets for discovery of gold systems at the Music Well project.

SensOre is an industry leading technology services provider of AI/ML applications to the minerals exploration and mining industry. SensOre’s technologies have been developed over many years and involve the application of new computer assisted statistical approaches and ML techniques across the mineral cycle to provide the next generation of exploration discoveries. SensOre aims to become the top global minerals targeting company through deployment of big data, AI/ML technologies and geoscience expertise.

The Company committed to this new technological approach to gold exploration at Music Well to reinforce the existing generative exploration undertaken by the Company and deliver new “out of the box” targets for gold mineralisation over the project area, which has minimal historic exploration and limited outcrop.

In addition, the Company has inherited a large and impressive database of geological, geochemical, and geophysical information since acquiring Music Well Gold Mines Pty Ltd in late 2024. Having a variety of good quality datasets is considered a key attribute for the application of the AI/ML technology to accelerate the discovery process. The data layers used in the AI/ML processing include results from 2,478 Ultra fine fraction soil samples, 18,042 soil samples and 155 rock chip samples, in addition to detailed aeromagnetic and gravity data.

The Music Well project is contained within an area of influence (AOI) where a “data cube” was constructed covering the four 100k scale regional map sheets containing 80m x 80m cells. This data cube contains 1,440,000 cells x 1,618 variables where the AI/ML technology was applied.

The application of the machine learning approach applied by SensOre to the database of geochemical, geological and geophysical information compiled over the Company’s AOI has demonstrated the highly gold prospective nature of the Music Well project. Application of the machine learning algorithms modelled the probability of gold systems within the AOI and more specifically the Music Well project. This required 107 variables for discrimination that were applied to the 80m by 80m cells within the AOI.

Click here for the full ASX Release



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