The previous weekly note categorically mentioned that while the markets may continue to decline, the Indian equities are set to outperform its global peers relatively. In line with this analysis, the market saw wide swings owing to prevailing global uncertainties but continued showing remarkable resilience against other global indices. The volatility spiked; the India VIX surged sharply by 46.18% to 20.11 on a weekly basis. The markets witnessed significant volatility, and as a result, the Nifty oscillated in a wide 1180.25 range during the past week. Despite this, the headline index Nifty 50 closed with a negligible loss of just 75.90 points (-0.33%).

The coming week is also short; Monday is a trading holiday for Dr. Babasaheb Ambedkar Jayanti. From a technical perspective, a few of the significant things have happened. Although the Nifty formed a fresh swing low of 21743 while slipping below its previous low of 21964, the Index has successfully defended the important support level of 100-week MA that stands at 22152. This level remains a very important support level for the market in the near term. So long as the Nifty keeps its head above this point, it will stay in a larger range but would avert any major drawdown. A violation of this level will invite structural weakness in the markets. On the upper side, it faces stiff resistance between the 23300-23400 zone, which houses the 20-week MA.

With Monday being a holiday, Tuesday will see the markets opening after a gap of one day and adjusting to the global trade. The levels of 23000 and 23250 may act as potential resistance points; the supports come in much lower at 22400 and 22150.

The weekly RSI is at 44.28; it stays neutral and does not show any divergence against the price. The weekly MACD is bearish and stays below its signal line; however, the narrowing Histogram hints at a likely positive crossover in the coming days.

The pattern analysis of the weekly Nifty chart reflects a strong rebound following a successful test of the 100-week moving average in early March, triggering a sharp 1,700-point rally. However, recent corrective moves driven by tariff-related concerns have led to the formation of a new swing low. Despite this, the Index has managed to hold above the crucial 100-week moving average level of 22,152 on a closing basis, which remains a key support zone. As long as the Nifty sustains above this level, the Index is likely to consolidate rather than witness any significant decline. However, a decisive breach below this average could open the door to a deeper corrective phase, which looks unlikely in the near future.

Overall, the Nifty is expected to encounter resistance around the 23,100 level and above, with volatility likely to remain a dominant feature in the near term. The Index may continue to trade within a broad range, making it prudent to adopt a cautious stance. Investors are advised to limit leveraged positions and prioritize protecting gains at higher levels. For fresh entries, the focus should remain on stocks exhibiting relative strength. Given the prevailing uncertainty, maintaining a conservative approach with modest exposure is recommended for the upcoming week. Risk management and selective participation will be essential to effectively navigate the anticipated market swings.

Sector Analysis for the coming week

In our look at Relative Rotation Graphs®, we compared various sectors against CNX500 (NIFTY 500 Index), which represents over 95% of the free float market cap of all the stocks listed.

Relative Rotation Graphs (RRG) show the Nifty Infrastructure, Metal, Banknifty, Services Sector, Consumption, Commodities, and Financial Services sector Indices inside the leading quadrant. Regardless of the direction the markets adopt, these groups are likely to post relative outperformance against the broader markets.

The Nifty Pharma Index is the only sector index present in the weakening quadrant.

The Nifty Auto Index has rolled inside the lagging quadrant, while the IT Index continues to languish inside the lagging quadrant. Besides this, the Midcap 100, Media, and Realty indices are also inside this quadrant, but they are improving on their relative momentum.

The Nifty FMCG, Energy, and PSE Indices are inside the improving quadrant; they are expected to improve their relative performance against the broader Nifty 500 Index.

Important Note: RRG charts show the relative strength and momentum of a group of stocks. In the above Chart, they show relative performance against NIFTY500 Index (Broader Markets) and should not be used directly as buy or sell signals.  

Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA

Consulting Technical Analyst

www.EquityResearch.asia | www.ChartWizard.ae

In 2024-2025, the United States significantly escalated its trade conflict with China through new tariffs, including a substantial 100% tariff on electric vehicles and 50% on essential technologies like semiconductors and solar products. These measures amplify the existing trade tensions and represent a profound shift towards economic decoupling between the two largest global economies. This article evaluates both short-term and long-term economic impacts of these tariffs, analyzing their implications for global trade patterns and specifically examining India’s potential to capitalize on these shifting dynamics.

Read the full note here

Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA

Consulting Technical Analyst

www.EquityResearch.asia | www.ChartWizard.ae

The current tariff environment is full of sudden moves that could have broad and long-lasting effects. The challenge is that we don’t know what those long-term impacts will be, mainly because it’s unclear how long the tariffs will last or what things will look like if they become permanent. That makes it incredibly hard to plan or make smart decisions right now.

Near-term shocks are preventing us from estimating the longer-term picture. Perhaps an effective way to counterbalance the geopolitical and market news with some objectivity, then, is to look under the stock market’s hood and take a good look at its breadth of movement—specifically, a longer-term summation of advancing vs. declining stocks. One indicator that’s designed specifically to do this, and one you might want to consider, is the McClellan Summation Index.

What Does the McClellan Summation Index Tell You?

Derived from the McClellan Oscillator, the McClellan Summation Index is a long-term market breadth indicator that shows whether more stocks are generally advancing or declining over time.

Think of it as a cumulative McClellan Oscillator of sorts. When the McClellan Oscillator is positive (above zero, meaning more advancers than decliners), the McClellan Summation Index trends upward; when the oscillator is negative (more decliners than advancers), the corresponding summation index trends downward. As you’ll see in Figure 1, uptrend and downtrend are color-coded black and red, respectively, so you distinguish the turns.

Generally, when the summation index is above zero (or +500), it signals bullish momentum (+500 signaling extremely bullish momentum); below zero (or –500), it reflects bearish (or exceedingly bearish) momentum. By smoothing out the short-term noise of the McClellan Oscillator, the summation can help you gauge the underlying strength or weakness of a market trend.

And smoothing out the noise coming out of the current trade war environment is probably something you’ll want to see.

Take a look at a three-year chart of the NYSE McClellan Summation Index paired with the S&P 500.

FIGURE 1. THREE-YEAR CHART OF THE NYSE MCCLELLAN SUMMATION INDEX WITH THE S&P 500. Notice the index turning points as they correspond to the ZigZag lines in the S&P. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The NYSE McClellan Summation Index is in negative territory below the zero line, and the S&P is undergoing a steep drop.  The Summation Index shows that declining stocks are far outnumbering advancing stocks, providing a breadth-informed perspective from which to view the broader market’s bearish decline.

While you can wait for the summation index to cross over the zero line (or even above 500), one way to interpret an early bullish signal is to apply a simple moving average (SMA), such as a 20-day SMA (see purple-dotted line).

As you can see in the chart above, there were many crossovers, indicating upturns and downturns. So, how might you avoid getting whipsawed and taking action on a false signal? You have to watch the price action, particularly the swing highs and lows (remember, an uptrend consists of HH + HL, and the reverse is true of a downtrend). This is where the ZigZag line comes in handy.

• The chart illustrates the S&P 500 trending higher from the last quarter of 2022 to the breakdown in March 2025.
• Note how almost all crossovers below the negative line (highlighted by the blue circles) forecasted new highs in the S&P 500.
• The June 2023 crossover was the exception, but the pullback stayed well above the March 2023 low, sustaining its primary uptrend.
• In October 2024, the summation index began falling as the S&P 500 continued making new highs.
• The last SMA crossover preceded a new high, but the S&P finally broke down (see dotted line), leading to where we are now.

At the Close: What Now?

The broader market is trading on tariff-driven headlines, with policy shifts carrying enough weight to reshape the underlying fundamentals. Short-term technicals reflect this uncertainty through heightened volatility, some of which feels nearly unprecedented. In contrast, the longer-term picture—viewed through the lens of the McClellan Summation Index—appears steadier, though still susceptible to noise.

For long-term investors seeking early signs of a shift, watch the Summation Index closely. A bullish crossover above its moving average may be the first clue, but the real confirmation comes from trend behavior. Use tools like the ZigZag indicator to track swing highs and lows—what you want to see are higher highs and higher lows taking shape. Until then, most other market interpretations remain at the mercy of sudden geopolitical shifts—moves that are unpredictable in both timing and duration.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.