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Want Faster, Lower Risk Trades? Use This Setup

Stock 1 Min Read

A good trade starts with a well-timed entry and a confident exit. But that’s easier said than done. 

In this video, Joe Rabil of Rabil Stock Research reveals his go-to two-timeframe setup he uses to gain an edge in his entry and exit timings and reduce his investment risks. 

Joe shows you how he spots the big trends on a higher timeframe chart and then drops to a shorter timeframe chart to pinpoint his entries and exits. Watch him dissect the S&P sectors, overall market, and specific symbols using the multiple timeframe approach. Follow along and come up with a systematic method that can help you gain more confidence in your investment decisions.  

The video premiered on July 2, 2025. Click this link to watch on Joe’s dedicated page. 

Archived videos from Joe are available at this link. Send symbol requests to stocktalk@stockcharts.com; you can also submit a request in the comments section below the video on YouTube. Symbol Requests can be sent in throughout the week prior to the next show.

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The Seasonality Trend Driving XLK and XLI to New Highs

Stock 6 Mins Read

For those who focus on sector rotation, whether to adjust portfolio weightings or invest directly in sector indexes, you’re probably wondering: Amid the current “risk-on” sentiment, even with ongoing economic and geopolitical uncertainties, can seasonality help you better anticipate shifts in sector performance?

Current Sector Performance Relative to SPY

To find out, let’s first look at how sectors are performing relative to the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), our S&P 500 proxy. The StockCharts Market Summary Mini Charts tab in the US Sectors panel shows you sector ETF performance and its relative performance against SPY.

FIGURE 1. MARKET SUMMARY US SECTORS PANEL. The new micro charts feature provides a chart of each sector’s ETF plus its relative performance against SPY, allowing you to gauge a sector’s strength against the broader market.

Looking at each sector chart over a three-month time frame, only two sectors are outperforming relative to SPY:

  1. Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK): Currently outperforming SPY by 13.85%.
  2. Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLI): Outpacing SPY by a modest 2.53%.

Spotlight on Technology and Industrials: Leading Sectors in a Risk-On Market

As a side note, Technology and Industrials are two sectors that align with the risk-on narrative. This suggests that the market is currently favoring higher-beta stocks (as XLK’s performance reflects) over safer sectors and that demand for industrial goods is generally rising, a sign investors expect the economy to strengthen.

Understanding Sector Seasonality: What History Tells Us

Now, let’s turn to seasonality. In this context, seasonality refers to the tendency for certain sectors to perform better during specific periods and worse during others. While past performance never guarantees future results, it can help you anticipate how a sector might behave based on historical tendencies, not certainties. 

So, what might the seasonality charts suggest about XLK and XLI in the coming months?.

XLK Seasonality Trends: Tech Sector’s Strongest Months

Take a look at XLK’s 10-year seasonality chart.

FIGURE 2. 10-YEAR SEASONALITY CHART OF XLK. While September appears to be tech’s only bearish month from a seasonality perspective, its strongest months are November and July. 

Over 10 years, July has been XLK’s second strongest month, with positive closes 90% of the time and an average monthly return of 4%. The most profitable month is November, with an 89% positive close rate and a 5% average monthly return. August isn’t bad, but July is exceptionally strong and reflects its current overall performance.

XLI Seasonality Patterns: When Industrials Tend to Outperform

Switching over to a seasonality chart of XLI, we get a similar picture.

FIGURE 3. 10-YEAR SEASONALITY CHART OF XLI. July is XLI’s strongest month for positive closes, and November is its strongest month for average seasonal returns.

This pattern is pretty exceptional: over the last 10 years, XLI has posted a historical 100% positive close rate in July, with an average return of 3.5%. The strongest returns, however, tend to occur in November, which shows an 89% positive close rate and an average return of 6.5%. The months in between are relatively unremarkable, making July and November stand out significantly. 

Technical Analysis of XLK and XLI

Will July be another up-month for XLK and XLI? Starting with XLK, let’s switch over to a six-month daily chart.

FIGURE 4. DAILY CHART OF XLK. Tech’s upward trajectory is now in overbought territory, yet there’s little sign of slowing.

XLK is at an all-time high, and there’s no clear indication that it’s pulling back just yet. 

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is suggesting that XLK has been occupying overbought territory since late June. However, bear in mind that an RSI reading at this level can sustain itself for an extended period. And if you look at the On Balance Volume (OBV) indicator, it suggests that the buying pressure trend is still rising with no signs of slowing down.

Actionable Tip: Remember, July is one of XLK’s historically strong seasonal months. 

  • But if it does pull back soon, you might expect a bounce near $242.50, which is an area marked by a series of historical swing highs. 
  • Notice how the ZigZag line highlights these key swing points. 
  • Other areas of support sit around $235, its most recent swing low, and $225, the level of its most recent swing low.

Now let’s turn to the daily chart of XLI.

FIGURE 5. DAILY CHART OF XLI. Industrials are also surging, although buying pressure may be starting to decline.

Similar to the previous chart, XLI shows a move higher that places it well into all-time high territory. July is also an exceptionally strong month for XLI, but does it have enough fuel to return the seasonal 3.5% that it typically averages this month?

The RSI signals that XLI may be overbought, which, again, can remain there for some time, while the OBV suggests that buying pressure may be easing into a pullback. However, price continues its upward trajectory.

Actionable Tip: If XLI dips, the pullback may be shallow, potentially bouncing near $145, its most recent swing high. A more substantial support level lies around $141, where multiple swing lows have formed. If XLI drops below $141, you can expect further downside movement.

At the Close

While no strategy can guarantee success, combining seasonality insights with price action can help improve your market timing. Keep an eye on support levels as well as momentum and volume. Remember that the strongest months for XLK and XLI tend to be July (the current month) and November. You can add XLK and XLI to your ChartLists and keep an eye on them, especially in the months ahead. 

However, the big takeaway here is to consider using seasonality charts alongside the various tools in the Market Summary, whether you’re considering an individual stock, index (sector or industry), or other asset classes, like commodities and monetary metals. While price action can help you nail down specific market opportunities, seasonality charts can help contextualize current price action and anticipate potential future market scenarios.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

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Investing

BHP Faces AU$1.3 Billion Wage Adjustment for Queensland Coal Miners

Investing 3 Mins Read

Mining giant BHP (ASX:BHP,NYSE:BHP,LSE:BHP) has been ordered to pay 2,200 of its Central Queensland coal miners an average of AU$30,000 more following a ruling from the Fair Work Commission (FWC).

The ruling stems from a case brought by the Mining and Energy Union and the Australian Manufacturing Workers’ Union against BHP. It was centered on 2024’s Same Job, Same Pay reforms.

The unions argue that BHP is underpaying workers at its Queensland coal operations by using an internal labor hire firm, OS Production and Maintenance.The case cites the Same Job, Same Pay legislation, which requires labor hire workers to receive equivalent pay and conditions as direct employees performing the same roles.

The FWC made the ruling on Monday (July 7), saying BHP must adjust each of its 2,200 workers at the Sarahi, Peak Downs and Goonyella Riverside coal mines’ wages with an additional AU$30,000.

The amount will align the workers’ wages with those of BHP’s direct employees performing the same roles, and could total to roughly AU$1.3 billion per year for the major mining company.

Several local and national labor groups commented on the decision, with the Australian Council of Trade Unions (ACTU) calling it a “winning wage justice for workers.”

“(This) stops labor hire workers (from) being treated as second class citizens,” said ACTU Secretary Sally McManus in a Monday release. “Wealthy mining companies like BHP have clawed money out of workers’ pay packets for many years when the income should be returned to workers, their families and the communities they support.”

She added that the ruling will have “a flow-on effect” throughout the mining industry and beyond, highlighting that the use of labor hire rorts to undercut wages is no longer lawful.

Meanwhile, the Mineral Council of Australia commented that the ruling is “incredibly disappointing.”

In a Monday statement, Minerals Council of Australia CEO Tania Constable said the decision will “directly threaten thousands of specialized contractors who play a vital role in mining operations across the country.”

She added, “(It) also confirms that instead of a ‘straight exclusion’ for service contractors, almost any service contractor could be captured by the legislation unless they can litigate their way out.’

Constable also noted that the Australian mining industry supports 1.25 million jobs, adding that service contractors contribute essential expertise across a wide range of tasks.

BHP has not yet released a statement following the reports, but a spokesperson told NewsWire that it notes the ruling and is studying the decision; it will comply with any orders made.

“Clearly this will have implications for our business,’ the spokesperson said.

Securities Disclosure: I, Gabrielle de la Cruz, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

This post appeared first on investingnews.com

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Investing

​Royal Gold to Create Streaming and Royalty Giant in US$3.7 Billion Deal

Investing 3 Mins Read

Royal Gold (NASDAQ:RGLD) has announced plans to acquire Sandstorm Gold (TSX:SSL,NYSE:SAND) and Horizon Copper (TSXV:HCU,OTCQB:HNCUF) in a pair of deals valued at a combined US$3.7 billion.

The companies involved confirmed the transactions in back-to-back press releases on Monday (July 7).

Royal Gold will acquire Sandstorm Gold in an all-share transaction worth approximately US$3.5 billion, and will separately acquire Horizon Copper for US$196 million in cash.

The deal will consolidate three complementary portfolios into a single entity operating under the Royal Gold name, with 393 royalty and streaming interests, including 80 cash-flowing assets. Upon closing, Sandstorm shareholders will own 23 percent of the newly combined Royal Gold, with existing Royal Gold shareholders retaining 77 percent.

Sandstorm President and CEO Nolan Watson called the announcement “a significant milestone.’

“This transaction rewards Sandstorm shareholders in the near term while also offering a compelling opportunity to own a large-scale, world-class streaming and royalty company with continued upside potential,” he said. “Joining forces with Royal Gold will amplify the strengths of Sandstorm’s portfolio and unlock new opportunities for our shareholders.”

The resulting pro-forma Royal Gold will be heavily weighted toward precious metals, with gold contributing 75 percent of 2025 revenues. Its portfolio will span North and South America, Africa and select operations in Asia and Europe.

The expanded company will also inherit exposure to a pipeline of high-profile development assets, including the MARA copper-gold project in Argentina by Glencore (LSE:GLEN,OTC Pink:GLCNF), Hod Maden in Turkey by SSR Mining (TSX:SSRM,NASDAQ:SSRM,ASX:SSR), Platreef in South Africa by Ivanhoe Mines (TSX:IVN,OTCQX:IVPAF) and the Warintza copper project in Ecuador under Solaris Resources (TSX:SLS,NYSEAMERICAN:SLSR).

Another notable addition is the Mount Milligan mine in BC, where Royal Gold holds rights to significant gold and copper streams. The site, operated by Centerra Gold (TSX:CG,NYSE:CGAU), is expected to produce up to 185,000 ounces of gold and 60 million pounds of copper in 2025.

Royal Gold will also strengthen its interests in assets like the Cortez Complex and Pueblo Viejo mine. Jointly owned by Barrick Mining (TSX:ABX,NYSE:GOLD) and Newmont (TSX:NGT,NYSE:NEM), Pueblo Viejo’s plant was recently expanded; output is targeted at an average of 800,000 ounces of gold annually on a 100 percent basis through the mid-2040s.

Also included is a 1.66 percent net profit interest in Antamina, a major copper producer in Peru operated by a Glencore-led joint venture. A US$2 billion expansion was recently approved to extend mine life through 2036.

Securities Disclosure: I, Giann Liguid, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

This post appeared first on investingnews.com

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Investing

Chris Berry: The West Must Invest in Refinement Now or Fall Further Behind

Investing 5 Mins Read

China’s grip on the battery metals sector has drawn increasing scrutiny in recent years as nations confront growing concerns around supply chain risk and resource security.

Through a blend of domestic output and aggressive overseas investment, particularly in Africa and South America, Chinese companies now command a significant share of upstream supply.

The country is responsible for roughly 60 percent of global rare earths production and controls over 70 percent of cobalt supply through its stakes in mines across the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Meanwhile, its lithium footprint continues to grow through key assets in Chile, Argentina and Australia, reinforcing China’s strategic control across the entire battery metals value chain.

In addition to resource extraction China also firmly controls the global midstream of the battery metals supply chain, particularly in refining and processing. The country currently accounts for approximately 70 to 72 percent of lithium refining and 68 percent of cobalt refining, with similar dominance in graphite and rare earth processing.

China’s control of the battery metals supply chain was a dominant theme at the Fastmarkets Lithium Supply & Battery Raw Materials conference held at the end of June in Las Vegas.

During the “Building North America’s Sustainable EV and ESS Supply Chain” expert panelists explored complex forces shaping the battery supply chain, pointing to the intersection of commodities, geopolitics and evolving technologies as critical pressure points.

Chris Berry, founder and president of House Mountain Partners, stressed the importance of mastering midstream production amid shifting chemistries, and called for bold action, specifically, increased funding for refining and next-generation processing.

He also advocated for selective collaboration with China, highlighting the necessity of leveraging mutual strengths in a deeply interlinked global market.

For Berry, a convergence of high interest rates, volatile metal prices and deepening policy uncertainty is keeping critical investment sidelined at a time when it’s most needed.

Speaking to current market dynamics, Berry noted that while capital was readily available two years ago — when lithium traded around US$80,000 per tonne and other metals saw record highs — today’s environment is far less favorable.

“The cost of capital is much higher, and policy uncertainty is the biggest issue investors are grappling with,” he said, pointing to unpredictable tariff measures and export controls as key deterrents.

For institutional investors and private equity funds, that lack of clarity makes it nearly impossible to deploy capital into battery supply chains with confidence.

The timing couldn’t be worse, Berry added, as nations seek to reindustrialize and compete with China’s dominant position. “Any delay in getting money into the ground today means falling further behind tomorrow.”

Lithium’s boom/bust cycle

After 15 years in the lithium space and three boom-bust cycles, Berry sees the market once again caught between extremes.

“In each cycle, prices have overshot on the upside and overcorrected on the downside,” he said, noting that lithium peaked around US$85,000 per metric ton in late 2022 — well above sustainable levels.

Fast forward to mid-2025, and the price has tumbled to just over US$8,000, a level Berry also considers unsustainable given the strength of long-term demand.

Despite price volatility, he still expects lithium demand to grow by 20 percent annually through the end of the decade — requiring the industry to double in size by 2030. But with investor hesitation and incentive pricing far off, capital is slow to flow into new supply.

“How is it supposed to double when the economics aren’t there?” he asked, warning that delays today could set the stage for the next inevitable boom. For now, opaque pricing and limited market visibility continue to challenge investors and developers alike.

Western refining capacity

During his panel discussion Berry suggested that the west look to the midstream segment of the battery metals supply chain as an opportunity for growth.

“I would fund the refining portion of the supply chain, whether that’s refining raw materials, lithium, nickel, what have you, or magnets, next generation technology. That to me, is really the bottom line and where the government should focus,” he told the attendees.

Berry expanded on his answer explaining that mines can take over a decade to be fully permitted while refining and processing sites have a much shorter lead time.

For Berry, the buildout of western refining and processing is the logical step in wresting some of the supply chain control out of China’s hands.

“If we’re talking about how we can lessen dependence on China? That’s how you do it. You strike a deal with raw material providers or producers. Maybe they’re Canadian, maybe they’re Australian, maybe it’s Chilean. Maybe it’s a country in Africa. But, the process of capacity is absolutely critical. It’s much faster to production,” he said.

Partnership and collaboration

While Berry is adamant that more refining capacity outside of China is needed, he is not opposed to strategic partnerships and alliances with the nation.

“It’s a US$500 billion a year relationship. You think about trade between the US and China, and I don’t even know if it’s feasible to unwind that,” he said during the panel.

“I don’t think it’s wise to be honest with you, but with respect to the EV supply chain, I just think, why wouldn’t we try and find a way to selectively partner and leverage each other’s strengths?”

Securities Disclosure: I, Georgia Williams, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

This post appeared first on investingnews.com

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Investing

Torex Gold Moves Beyond Single-Asset Status With Reyna Silver Takeover

Investing 4 Mins Read

Torex Gold (TSX:TXG,OTCQX:TORXF) is taking a step toward diversification with its planned acquisition of Reyna Silver (TSXV:RSLV,OYCQB:RSNVF), a junior explorer with early stage projects in Mexico and the US.

The US$26 million all-share deal, announced in late June, is set to close later this year and marks Torex’s first major move outside its flagship Mexico-based Morelos Complex.

The acquisition comes at a pivotal moment for Torex. The company is in the early ramp-up phase at its Media Luna project, part of the Morelos Complex southwest of Mexico City.

The site also includes the ELG underground and open-pit mines, which together produced 452,523 ounces of gold in 2024, meeting guidance for the sixth consecutive year at an all-in sustaining cost (AISC) of US$1,156 per ounce.

Looking ahead to 2025, Torex is forecasting production of 400,000 to 450,000 gold equivalent ounces, but expects a higher AISC range of US$1,400 to US$1,600 per ounce as development spending continues.

CEO Jody Kuzenko said the Reyna deal reflects Torex’s broader strategy to build out a pipeline of earlier-stage projects.

Reyna’s exploration-stage portfolio offers Torex low-cost entry into silver-rich terrain, while also signaling a shift in the producer’s long-term vision — one that includes earlier-stage risk and greater geographic flexibility.

Kuzenko stated that, with the company’s exploration team already having spent months conducting due diligence, Torex is ready to hit the ground running once the transaction is complete. She also noted the company had already developed conceptual programs and expects to commence work shortly after closing.

“We plan to leverage the same systematic approach to exploration employed at Morelos through which we effectively identify, rank, evaluate and prioritize targets with the success of the system demonstrated by the reserve and resource growth we have experienced at Morelos over the last several years,” Kuzenko said.

With the acquisition, Torex will gain immediate access to Reyna’s Mexican silver assets, including:

  • Guigui, a 4,750 hectare property covering a significant portion of the Santa Eulalia Mining District in Chihuahua. The area has a history of mining dating back to the 1700s and has recorded the production of 450 million ounces of silver.
  • Batopilas, a 1,183 hectare site that covers 94 percent of the Batopilas Mining District, which has significant deposits of native silver. Historic mining at the site produced an estimated 200 million to 300 million ounces of silver dating back to the mid-1600s.

Until now, Torex has primarily focused on operations in Mexico; however, with the takeover of Reyna, the company also has the option to acquire a 70 percent stake in the Griffin Summit project, located along the Carlin Trend in Nevada, US. The project covers an area of 10,300 hectares and is prospective for gold, silver and critical minerals.

Additionally, Torex will also have an option to acquire a 100 percent interest in the Medicine Springs project, also located in Nevada. The property spans 4,831 hectares south of Elko and is situated in a region with several large gold mines operated by major companies, including Newmont (TSX:NGT,NYSE:NEM) and Barrick Mining (TSX:ABX,NYSE:B).

Previous exploration at the site identified lead, zinc and silver mineralization.

“What attracted us to Reyna Silver is the immediate exposure to a portfolio of four properties in key mining regions of northern Mexico and Nevada,” Kuzenko said. She added that with the completion of Media Luna, Morelos is now positioned as the company’s flagship operation and serves as a foundation upon which it can build from.

Although shareholders won’t vote on the transaction until August, Kuzenko noted that the acquisition has the full support of management and the board of directors at Reyna Silver.

Securities Disclosure: I, Dean Belder, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

This post appeared first on investingnews.com

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Ekin Ober on Why AI Could Be Mining’s Most Valuable Tool Yet

Investing 5 Mins Read

For Ekin Ober, bringing generative artificial intelligence (AI) to the critical metals sector through her work at Aethos Labs wasn’t just about technological innovation — it reshaped how she thinks about strategy and sustainability in mining.

Now a principal at Kinterra Capital, Ober applies that broad, cross-disciplinary lens to investment decisions, emphasizing the importance of digital fluency, stakeholder alignment and long-term viability.

Her experience helps her identify operational bottlenecks and social license challenges early — essential in guiding assets like nickel and copper projects from concept to production.

While mining has long been viewed as a slow adopter of new technologies, Ekin Ober sees the tide turning — especially when it comes to AI.

However one of the largest learning curves has been educating industry stakeholders about the value of generative AI.

“They don’t need to be tech experts,” she said, “but it’s our job to show them how the tools work, and how their concerns can be addressed.”

As AI gains traction across the sector, she noted that even conservative markets are beginning to host dedicated discussions on the technology — a sign that change is accelerating.

How AI is being deployed

In addition to benefiting project planning through better modeling and digital twin, AI is making mining more efficient, safe and environmentally responsible.

In exploration, startups like KoBold use machine learning to analyze geological data, drastically cutting the time and cost of identifying potential lithium, copper, nickel and cobalt deposits

Operationally, majors such as Rio Tinto (ASX:RIO,NYSE:RIO,LSE:RIO), BHP (ASX:BHP,NYSE:BHP,LSE:BHP) and Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE:FCX), deploy AI-powered autonomous haul trucks, drills and predictive maintenance systems that have slashed downtime and fuel use by up to 15 percent, while boosting throughput by 10 to 15 percent.

On the environmental front, AI tools optimize water management, monitor air quality and reduce waste, BHP’s Escondida mine reportedly saved over 3 gigaliters of water and 118 gigawatt hours of energy since 2022.

While AI isn’t without its own controversy, usually arising from its energy consumption, Ober explained that AI integration can help reduce a mining site’s overall energy intensity.

It is estimated that one billion daily AI prompts utilize 340 megawatt hours of electricity each day, while a mining site can use upwards of 1000 – 5000 megawatt hours. According to data from Natural Resources Canada, global mining operations consume 3 percent – 6 percent of the world’s electricity.

Together, AI can help the mining sector better target deposits and reduce the amount of energy deployed.

“Drill holes (alone) use 3000 liters of diesel. And when you look at grinding, grinding ore is 70 percent of the mine’s electricity (consumption),” said Ober.

She added: So if you’re using the technology for scans, you’re able to use computer vision and scan a core, or look at the geography to reduce the number of drills, or the grinding exercise that you’re going through, then it can actually save 1000s of hours of energy, conserving more than it consumes.”

From policy bottlenecks to permit approvals

This efficiency has made AI data sets appealing to governments as well. Through initiatives like DARPA’s CriticalMAAS and a collaboration with the US Geological Survey, AI models can now transform geologic map processing — from years to mere days — by automating georeferencing and mineral feature extraction.

These tools help rapidly assess hundreds of critical minerals across vast regions, accelerating decision-making and reducing exploration risk.

Meanwhile, the Pentagon’s AI-driven metals forecasting program, now managed by the Critical Minerals Forum, models supply, pricing and policy scenarios to bolster US sourcing strategies — especially for rare earths, nickel and cobalt.

For Ober, AI can also be integral to the often extended permitting process, while also implementing ESG goals and best practices. She explained that at Kinterra, AI is already playing a key role in streamlining permitting assessments, one of the most complex hurdles in mine development.

The firm has built a closed-loop system using large language models layered with its own criteria and values, including permitting stages, Indigenous engagement and community sentiment. The tool filters thousands of data points — from state filings to news releases and emails — extracting only what’s relevant.

Jurisdiction-specific updates are then summarized and delivered directly into Microsoft Teams, offering a real-time, digestible overview of key permitting signals.

“We need the company and the community to be engaged,” she said. “We take a very proactive approach. We engage very early on.”

Industry wide Ober sees AI improving the efficiency and transparency of mining permitting.

“One of the biggest concerns we hear is around security,” said Ober. “But we already trust companies like Google, Microsoft and Apple with sensitive data every day. If you’re using legitimate tools with strong policies in place, it’s manageable.”

Ober believes AI’s biggest value lies in its ability to accelerate slow, document-heavy government processes.

“Permitting can stall a project for years — not because of technical issues, but because no one has time to read the documents,” she said. “That’s where AI can help. Large language models can extract key information, layer in governance or environmental criteria and summarize it in a way that’s actionable.”

To address the risk of accuracy, Kinterra has designed its systems to generate traceable outputs.

“You can click a link and go straight to the original document and quote,” she explained, adding that this level of transparency is crucial for regulators and investors alike.

“It’s hard to commit capital when you don’t know if or when a permit will be granted,” she said. “AI won’t replace people, but it can get us to decision points faster — something the entire sector needs.”

Securities Disclosure: I, Georgia Williams, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

This post appeared first on investingnews.com

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Business

Amazon extends Prime Day discounts to 4 days as retailers weigh tariffs and price increases

Business 6 Mins Read

Amazon is extending its annual Prime Day sales and offering new membership perks to Gen Z shoppers amid tariff-related price worries and possibly some consumer boredom with an event marking its 11th year.

For the first time, Seattle-based Amazon is holding the now-misnamed Prime Day over four days. The e-commerce giant’s promised blitz of summer deals for Prime members started at 3:01 a.m. Eastern time on Tuesday and ends early Friday.

Amazon launched Prime Day in 2015 and expanded it to two days in 2019. The company said this year’s longer version would have deals dropping as often as every 5 minutes during certain periods.

Prime members ages 18-24, who pay $7.49 per month instead of the $14.99 that older customers not eligible for discounted rates pay for free shipping and other benefits, will receive 5% cash back on their purchases for a limited time.

Amazon executives declined to comment on the potential impact of tariffs on Prime Day deals. The event is taking place two and a half months after an online news report sparked speculation that Amazon planned to display added tariff costs next to product prices on its website.

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt denounced the purported change as a “hostile and political act” before Amazon clarified the idea had been floated for its low-cost Haul storefront but never approved.

Amazon’s past success with using Prime Day to drive sales and attract new members spurred other major retail chains to schedule competing sales in July. Best Buy, Target and Walmart are repeating the practice this year.

Like Amazon, Walmart is adding two more days to its promotional period, which starts Tuesday and runs through July 13. The nation’s largest retailer is making its summer deals available in stores as well as online for the first time.

Here’s what to expect:

Amazon expanded Prime Day this year because shoppers “wanted more time to shop and save,” Amazon Prime Vice President Jamil Ghani recently told The Associated Press.

Analysts are unsure the extra days will translate into more purchases given that renewed inflation worries and potential price increases from tariffs may make consumers less willing to spend. Amazon doesn’t disclose Prime Day sales figures but said last year that the event achieved record global sales.

Adobe Digital Insights predicts that the sales event will drive $23.8 billion in overall online spending from July 8 to July 11, 28.4% more than the similar period last year. In 2024 and 2023, online sales increased 11% and 6.1% during the comparable four days of July.

Vivek Pandya, lead analyst at Adobe Digital Insights, noted that Amazon’s move to stretch the sales event to four days is a big opportunity to “really amplify and accelerate the spending velocity.”

Caila Schwartz, director of consumer insights and strategy at software company Salesforce, noted that July sales in general have lost some momentum in recent years. Amazon is not a Salesforce Commerce Cloud customer, so the business software company doesn’t have access to the online giant’s e-commerce sales and so is not privy to Prime Day figures.

“What we saw last year was that (shoppers) bought and then they were done, ” Schwartz said. “We know that the consumer is still really cautious. So it’s likely we could see a similar pattern where they come out early, they’re ready to buy and then they take a step back.”

Amazon executives reported in May that the company and many of its third-party sellers tried to beat big import tax bills by stocking up on foreign goods before President Donald Trump’s tariffs took effect. And because of that move, a fair number of third-party sellers hadn’t changed their pricing at that time, Amazon said.

Adobe Digital Insights’ Pandya expects discounts to remain on par with last year and for other U.S. retail companies to mark 10% to 24% off the manufacturers’ suggested retail price between Tuesday and Friday.

Salesforce’s Schwartz said she’s noticed retailers becoming more precise with their discounts, such as offering promotion codes that apply to selected products instead of their entire websites.

Amazon Prime and other July sales have historically helped jump-start back-to-school spending and encouraged advance planners to buy other seasonal merchandise earlier. Analysts said they expected U.S. consumers to make purchases this week out of fear that tariffs will make items more expensive later.

Brett Rose, CEO of United National Consumer Supplies, a wholesale distributor of overstocked goods like toys and beauty products, thinks shoppers will go for items like beauty essentials.

“They’re going to buy more everyday items,” he said.

As in past years, Amazon offered early deals leading up to Prime Day. For the big event, Amazon said it would have special discounts on Alexa-enabled products like Echo, Fire TV and Fire tablets.

Walmart said its July sale would include a 32-inch Samsung smart monitor priced at $199 instead of $299.99; and $50 off a 50-Inch Vizio Smart TV with a standard retail price of $298.00. Target said it was maintaining its 2024 prices on key back-to-school items, including a $5 backpack and a selection of 20 school supplies totaling less than $20.

Independent businesses that sell goods through Amazon account for more than 60% of the company’s retail sales. Some third-party sellers are expected to sit out Prime Day and not offer discounts to preserve their profit margins during the ongoing tariff uncertainty, analysts said.

Rose, of United National Consumer Supplies, said he spoke with third-party sellers who said they would rather take a sales hit this week than use up a lot of their pre-tariffs inventory now and risk seeing their profit margins suffer later.

However, some independent businesses that market their products on Amazon are looking to Prime Day to make a dent in the inventory they built up earlier in the year to avoid tariffs.

Home fragrance company Outdoor Fellow, which makes about 30% of its sales through Amazon’s marketplace, gets most of its candle lids, labels, jars, reed diffusers and other items from China, founder Patrick Jones said. Fearing high costs from tariffs, Jones stocked up at the beginning of the year, roughly doubling his inventory.

For Prime Day, he plans to offer bigger discounts, such as 32% off the price of a candle normally priced at $34, Jones said.

“All the product that we have on Amazon right now is still from the inventory that we got before the tariffs went into effect,” he said. “So we’re still able to offer the discount that we’re planning on doing.”

Jones said he was waiting to find out if the order he placed in June will incur large customs duties when the goods arrive from China in a few weeks.

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OpenAI to release web browser in challenge to Google Chrome

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SAN FRANCISCO — OpenAI is close to releasing an AI-powered web browser that will challenge Alphabet’s market-dominating Google Chrome, three people familiar with the matter told Reuters.

The browser is slated to launch in the coming weeks, three of the people said, and aims to use artificial intelligence to fundamentally change how consumers browse the web. It will give OpenAI more direct access to a cornerstone of Google’s success: user data.

If adopted by the 500 million weekly active users of ChatGPT, OpenAI’s browser could put pressure on a key component of rival Google’s ad-money spigot. Chrome is an important pillar of Alphabet’s ad business, which makes up nearly three-quarters of its revenue, as Chrome provides user information to help Alphabet target ads more effectively and profitably, and also gives Google a way to route search traffic to its own engine by default.

OpenAI’s browser is designed to keep some user interactions within a ChatGPT-like native chat interface instead of clicking through to websites, two of the sources said.

The browser is part of a broader strategy by OpenAI to weave its services across the personal and work lives of consumers, one of the sources said.

OpenAI declined to comment. The sources declined to be identified because they are not authorized to speak publicly on the matter. Led by entrepreneur Sam Altman, OpenAI upended the tech industry with the launch of its AI chatbot ChatGPT in late 2022. After its initial success, OpenAI has faced stiff competition from rivals including Google and startup Anthropic, and is looking for new areas of growth.

In May, OpenAI said it would enter the hardware domain, paying $6.5 billion to buy io, an AI devices startup from Apple’s former design chief, Jony Ive. A web browser would allow OpenAI to directly integrate its AI agent products such as Operator into the browsing experience, enabling the browser to carry out tasks on behalf of the user, the people said.

The browser’s access to a user’s web activity would make it the ideal platform for AI “agents” that can take actions on their behalf, like booking reservations or filling out forms, directly within the websites they use.

OpenAI has its work cut out — Google Chrome, which is used by more than 3 billion people, currently holds more than two-thirds of the worldwide browser market, according to web analytics firm StatCounter. Apple’s second-place Safari lags far behind with a 16% share. Last month, OpenAI said it had 3 million paying business users for ChatGPT.

Perplexity, which has a popular AI search engine, launched an AI browser, Comet, on Wednesday, capable of performing actions on a user’s behalf. Two other AI startups, The Browser Company and Brave, have released AI-powered browsers capable of browsing and summarizing the internet.

Chrome’s role in providing user information to help Alphabet target ads more effectively and profitably has proven so successful that the Department of Justice has demanded its divestiture after a U.S. judge last year ruled that the Google parent holds an unlawful monopoly in online search.

OpenAI’s browser is built atop Chromium, Google’s own open-source browser code, two of the sources said. Chromium is the source code for Google Chrome, as well as many competing browsers including Microsoft’s Edge and Opera. Last year, OpenAI hired two longtime Google vice presidents who were part of the original team that developed Google Chrome. The Information was first to report their hires and that OpenAI previously considered building a browser.

An OpenAI executive testified in April that the company would be interested in buying Chrome if antitrust enforcers succeeded in forcing the sale. Google has not offered Chrome for sale. The company has said it plans to appeal the ruling that it holds a monopoly.

OpenAI decided to build its own browser, rather than simply a “plug-in” on top of another company’s browser, in order to have more control over the data it can collect, one source said.

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Sports executive charged with bid-rigging in Texas arena project

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Oak View Group CEO Tim Leiweke was indicted on a federal criminal conspiracy charge related to allegedly rigging a bid to develop, manage, and operate the University of Texas’ basketball and entertainment arena in Austin, the Department of Justice said Wednesday.

Oak View Group, which will pay $15 million in penalties in connection with the allegations, later Wednesday said that Leiweke “will transition from the position of CEO to” vice chairman of the entertainment venue giant’s board of directors, and remain a shareholder.

Leiweke, 68, is accused in the indictment of conspiring with another would-be bidder on UT’s $338 million Moody Center arena project to induce that second company in February 2018 to drop out of the competition with Oak View Group in exchange for receiving lucrative subcontracts at the 15,000-seat arena.

CNBC has been told the second company was Legends Hospitality, a New York-based venue services company that is majority-owned by Sixth Street Partners, and whose minority owners include the New York Yankees and the Dallas Cowboys.

The indictment in U.S. District Court in Austin says that Leiweke later reneged on that promise to the second company after it dropped its effort to bid on the entire project.

“The arena opened to the public in April 2022, and OVG continues to receive significant revenues from the project to date,” the Department of Justice said Wednesday.

Leiweke “rigged a bidding process to benefit his own company and deprived a public university and taxpayers of the benefits of competitive bidding,” said Assistant Attorney General Abigail Slater of the DOJ’s Antitrust Division, in a statement.

Leweike, in a 2022 interview with CNBC, said that the Moody Center was one of his company’s “two most successful arenas.”

The DOJ also said Wednesday that Oak View Group and Legends agreed to pay $15 million and $1.5 million, respectively, in penalties “in connection with the conduct alleged in the indictment against Leiweke.”

Oak View Group’s website says that the company manages 400 sports, entertainment and other venues.

Lewieke, who is charged with one count of conspiracy to restrain trade, is the former CEO of Maple Leaf Sports and Entertainment. Before that, he served as CEO of Anschutz Entertainment Group.

A spokesman for Leiweke, in a statement to CNBC, said, “Mr. Leiweke has done nothing wrong and will vigorously defend himself and his well-deserved reputation for fairness and integrity.”

“The Antitrust Division’s allegations are wrong on the law and the facts, and the case should never have been brought,” the spokesman said. “The law is clear: vertical, complementary business partnerships, like the one contemplated between OVG and Legends, are legal.”

“These allegations blatantly ignore established legal precedent and seek to criminalize common teaming efforts that are proven to enhance competition and benefit the public. The Moody Center is a perfect example, as it has resulted in substantial and sustained benefits to the University of Texas and the City of Austin.”

Leiweke, in his own statement, said, “While I’m pleased the company has resolved its Department of Justice Antitrust Division inquiry without any charges filed or admission of wrongdoing, the last thing I want to do is distract from the accomplishments of the team or draw focus away from executing for our partners, so the Board and I decided that now is the right time to implement the succession plan that was already underway and transition out of the CEO role.

Oak View Group, in a statement, said, “Oak View Group cooperated fully with the Antitrust Division’s inquiry and is pleased to have resolved this matter with no charges filed against OVG and no admission of fault or wrongdoing.”

“We support all efforts to ensure a fair and competitive environment in our industry and are committed to upholding industry-leading compliance and disclosure practices,” Oak View Group said.

CNBC has requested comment from Legends.

Chris Granger, who was president of Oak View Group’s division OVG360, has been appointed as interim CEO of Oak View Group by the company’s board.

Granger previously was group president for sports and entertainment of the Detroit Tigers and Detroit Red Wings, and president and chief operating officer of the Sacramento Kings.

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