What moved the copper price?

Copper started the quarter in freefall.

After reaching an all-time high of US$5.22 per pound on the COMEX on March 26, the price plummeted to US$4.06 on April 8. Although it wouldn’t stay there long, by April 11, it had climbed back above US$4.50 and continued to US$4.88 on April 22.

Copper price chart, April 01 to July 23, 2025

via TradingEconomics

From the end of April, all of May and much of June, the copper price was volatile but range-bound, trading between US$4.50 and US$4.80.

However, the end of June saw a surge in momentum in the market, as the price began to climb, and on June 30, it reached US$4.97 per pound.

Since then, the price has soared. Setting a new all-time high of US$5.65 per pound on July 10.

Supply and demand by the numbers

Over the past few years, a growing imbalance has developed in the copper market, as demand growth has outpaced the expansion of primary and secondary supply lines.

According to a June 24 press release, data from the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) showed a 3.2 percent growth in refined production, with a combined gain of 4.8 percent from China and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), the two largest producers globally. Further increases came from Asia, where output was 3.5 percent higher.

The increased levels were offset by Chile, where smelter output fell 9.5 percent, due to smelter maintenance shutdowns.

However, the refined production outpaced mining production, which rose just 2 percent during the period. Peru accounted for a 5 percent year-over-year growth due to increased output at MMG’s (OTC Pink:MMLTF) Las Bambas, Anglo American (LSE:AAL,OTC Pink:AAUKF,OTC:NGLOY) and Mitsubishi’s (OTC Pink:MIMTF) Quellaveco and Chinalco Mining’s (OTC Pink:ALMMF) Toromocho mines.

Likewise, production in DRC surged by 8 percent, attributable to the expansion of the Ivanhoe Mines (TSX:IVN,OTC:IVPAF) and Zijin Mining’s (OTC Pink:ZIJMF,HKEX:2899,SHA:601899) joint venture Kamoa-Kakula mine.

Demand continued to grow at a higher rate than refined output during the first quarter of 2025, with the ICSG suggesting a 3.3 percent increase in copper usage.

The largest segment came from Chinese markets, which required 6 percent more copper than in 2024, but this demand occurred during an 11 percent decline in net refined imports into the country. China is the world’s largest consumer of copper, accounting for approximately 58 percent of global demand.

Outside of China, demand was essentially flat, with high demand from Asian, Middle Eastern and North African countries being offset by weak demand in Europe and North America.

Overall, the data provided by the ICSG indicated a 233,000 metric ton surplus of refined copper through the first four months of 2025, a slight decrease from the 236,000 metric tons during the same period in 2024.

Outside the numbers

“Yes, we believe we have moved into a supply deficit in 2025 and that the market is currently in deficit. Uncertainties in the financial markets (trade, growth and inflation) have had a negative impact on copper demand, but this has been offset as copper is becoming less tied to global economic growth and more tied to industries that provide structural growth to the market,” he said.

White went on to explain that AI data centers, emerging economies and the energy transition are all putting increased stress on copper supply.

Furthermore, the supply outlook was not expected to keep pace with demand this year. Q1 2025 mined copper production has indicated low production, and the copper supply outlook for this year has already worsened with the first major disruption of the year,” he added.

The shutdown referred to by White was at the Ivanhoe-Zijin Kakula-Kamoa mine in the DRC.

Ivanhoe reported a temporary interruption of underground mining at the Kakula mine on May 2. The company cited seismic activity and initiated a partial shutdown of operations at phase 1 and 2 concentrators, utilizing surface stockpiles.

Operations at the mine were suspended until June 11, when the company announced it had initiated a restart. It also stated that it was slashing production guidance by 28 percent due to the impact, with the revised number falling between 370,000 and 420,000 metric tons, down from the previous range of 520,000 to 580,000 set in January.

The difference in guidance accounts for more than half of the projected surplus in the ICSG report, demonstrating just how tight the copper market has become.

The Trump effect

Volatility has been present since the start of the year, with much of it attributed to uncertainty stemming from an ever-shifting US trade policy under President Donald Trump.

Commodity prices plummeted at the start of the second quarter, with copper losing 22 percent between its quarterly high of US$5.22 on March 26 and April 8, when it fell to US$4.06.

The drop came alongside the fallout from the “Liberation Day” tariffs Trump announced on April 2, which applied a 10 percent baseline tariff to imports into the United States from all but a handful of countries. It also threatened the imposition of more significant retaliatory tariffs to take effect on April 9.

Additionally, the United States initiated a tit-for-tat tariff war with China in early April, starting with a 34 percent tariff on Chinese imports, which quickly rose to 145 percent on Chinese imports and 125 percent on US exports to China.

The effect of the tariffs caused significant declines in major US indices, with the Dow losing 9.5 percent, the S&P 500 shedding 10 percent, and the Nasdaq losing 11 percent in two days. More than $6 trillion was wiped from the markets over two days, the most significant such loss in history.

More importantly, the uncertainty seeped into the US bond markets, causing yields on the 10-year Treasury to rise sharply to 4.49 percent as investors began to dump US bonds. The rising rates came as China and Japan both sold holdings back into the market in an attempt to counter Trump’s trade plans.

The combined effect led analysts to suggest that a recession was imminent, prompting broad sell-offs in the commodity markets as traders worked to dispose of stockpiles of high-value inventories.

Copper is susceptible to recessions due to its wide range of applications, which are heavily dependent on consumer spending.

Ultimately, a sliding stock market and spiking bond yields prompted Trump to announce a 90-day pause on the retaliatory tariffs, stating that it would allow countries to come to the table and negotiate a deal with the United States.

Although the rout of the copper market was short-lived, it demonstrated the push-pull that tariffs and trade policy can have on copper prices.

In February, Trump signed an executive order which invoked section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act to initiate an investigation into the impact of copper imports on all forms of national security.

In the order, Trump noted that while the US has ample copper reserves, its smelting and refining capacity has declined. China has become the world’s leading supplier of refined copper, commanding a 50 percent market share.

“The supply and demand imbalance has recently been catalyzed with the US trade actions, where copper stocks have moved into the US on speculation that the Section 232 investigation into copper may result in a copper tariff,” White said.

He explained that the global inventory system has become fragmented. With the supply deficit, it has become increasingly difficult to source physical copper, resulting in drastically lower inventories on the London Metal Exchange (LME) and Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE).

The administration reached a decision early in the third quarter, and on July 8, Donald Trump announced a 50 percent tariff on all copper entering the United States.

The move caused prices on the COMEX to spike to record highs, triggering more panic buying among traders as they raced to transfer above-ground copper stocks into US-based facilities to avoid the additional tariff costs.

While ICSG hasn’t published numbers since May, it was already demonstrating then that significant stockpiles were being moved between international warehouses and the US. It reported that stocks at the LME had declined 122,900 metric tons from the start of the year, while stocks at the COMEX and SHFE had both posted gains of 80,970 metric tons and 31,619 metric tons, respectively.

“Copper is globally fungible. It’s like oil. The sanctions don’t work on Russian oil or Iranian oil, because it just flows around. Copper can do that, too. So it’s incorrect to think that a copper tariff, therefore, copper is up, and all copper stocks have to go up. If you’re a copper miner in Chile selling to China, then the US tariff has no direct bearing on your business whatsoever,” he said.

Tigre also explained that the US imports 50 percent of its copper needs, and there is no way that tariffs are going to fix that overnight.

“The mines just aren’t there. The help he’s (Trump) provided with permitting is highly relevant, and it has already helped; that’s okay. You get the permits, and then you have to build the mine, right? So it’ll be years before the incentives create more US production. Meanwhile, it’s Dr. Copper. It goes in everything, so consumers, manufacturers, everybody’s got this added cost,” he said.

Where does copper go next?

Beyond the tariffs, the fundamentals remain, as Tigre pointed out, the world is dependent on copper and demand for the red metal has been increasing faster than supply.

“There aren’t enough copper projects on the pipeline, not ones big enough to matter. So I’m extremely bullish on copper. All those reasons to be bullish on copper are still on the table in front of us, and when I first made the call, copper was around four bucks or something, and now, if we’re going there at five, almost six, and all that tailwind is stil to come and push it higher,” Tigre said.

While he remained positive on copper’s long-term outlook, he declined to say where the price would end up at the end of the year.

Even though copper may be one of the safer commodity bets owing to its staggering demand and low supply, investors should keep in mind the broad economic landscape when entering into a position with a metal that can change quickly with consumer spending.

Investor Insights

Rapidly emerging as Southeast Asia’s premier base and battery metals developer, Blackstone Minerals now holds two globally significant projects: the Ta Khoa nickel-cobalt project in Vietnam and the Mankayan copper-gold porphyry project in the Philippines. Both projects are critical to the company’s strategy to become a vertically integrated, low-cost, low-carbon producer of critical battery and base metals.

Overview

As the global economy accelerates toward net-zero emissions, the demand for critical minerals continues to rise, with nickel and copper positioned at the forefront of the energy transition. Historically used in stainless steel, nickel is now a core component in lithium-ion batteries; while copper, vital for electrification infrastructure, is similarly facing a looming supply crunch.

Blackstone Minerals (ASX:BSX,OTC:BLSTF,FRA:B9S) recognizes this strategic imperative and has positioned itself as a diversified, vertically integrated producer of low-cost, low-carbon battery and base metals.

Following its transformational merger with IDM International, Blackstone now controls two globally significant assets: the Ta Khoa nickel project in Vietnam and the Mankayan copper-gold project in the Philippines. Together, they represent a rare combination of scale, grade and strategic location in Southeast Asia, an increasingly vital region in the global clean energy supply chain.

The Mankayan copper-gold project is located in Northern Luzon, Philippines

The recently acquired Mankayan project adds substantial scale and diversification to Blackstone’s portfolio. One of the largest undeveloped copper-gold porphyry systems in Asia, Mankayan features over 56,000 meters of historical drilling and a resource of 793 million tonnes (Mt) at 0.756 percent copper equivalent (CuEq), including a high-grade core of 170 Mt at 1.049 percent CuEq. The project benefits from proximity to existing infrastructure and its location just 2.5 km from the operating Lepanto gold mine, owned and operated by Lepanto Consolidated Mining Company, and Far Southeast Gold Resources’ Far Southeast project.

The Ta Khoa project, meanwhile, includes both a past-producing underground nickel sulphide mine (Ban Phuc) and an advanced-stage refinery designed to produce battery-grade precursor cathode active material (pCAM). Vietnam’s low labor and energy costs, coupled with regulated power pricing and surging foreign direct investment, make it an ideal base for Blackstone’s vertically integrated strategy.

Blackstone is uniquely positioned to benefit from geopolitical tailwinds. Vietnam’s Free Trade Agreement with the European Union and the US Inflation Reduction Act are drawing significant interest from global partners and battery manufacturers. Meanwhile, the Philippines is undergoing a mining renaissance, with the government promoting foreign investment in responsible resource development. Mankayan has already been identified as a priority project by the Philippines’ Mines and Geosciences Bureau.

The company’s development strategy is underpinned by a commitment to ESG leadership. Blackstone is advancing renewable energy solutions for Ta Khoa via a direct power purchase agreement with Limes Renewables and is collaborating with Arca Climate Technologies to explore carbon capture through mineralization. At Mankayan, the company is focused on sustainable development in partnership with local communities.

Financially, Blackstone is well-capitalized to deliver on its dual-track growth plan. Following the merger with IDM, the company raised AU$22.6 million and holds AU$24.36 million in cash as of June 2025. The company’s experienced leadership team and strong partnerships provide a clear path to near-term value creation, as both projects progress toward definitive feasibility studies and long-term production.

Blackstone Minerals is now one of Southeast Asia’s leading battery and base metals developers, with a clear vision to supply responsibly sourced nickel and copper for the global energy transition.

Company Highlights

• Diversified Portfolio: With Ta Khoa in Vietnam and Mankayan in the Philippines, Blackstone offers exposure to two critical and high-demand metal classes: nickel and copper-gold.
• Strategic Southeast Asia Presence: Vietnam and the Philippines are emerging hubs for EV and mineral resource development, with robust government support and increasing foreign direct investment.
• Infrastructure Advantage: Both projects benefit from existing infrastructure, including hydroelectric power, trained workforces, and government collaboration.
• Sustainability Leadership: Blackstone is pursuing low-emission mining solutions through partnerships in renewable energy and carbon capture technologies.
• Financially Strong: Blackstone raised AU$22.6 million post-merger, supporting an aggressive exploration and development strategy across both assets.

Key Project

Mankayan Copper-Gold Project – Philippines

Following its merger with IDM International, Blackstone now owns a 64 percent effective interest in the world-class Mankayan copper-gold project through Crescent Mining Development. Located in the prolific mineral belt of Northern Luzon, Philippines, Mankayan is one of Asia’s largest undeveloped copper-gold porphyry systems. It lies approximately 340 km from Manila by road, and just 2.5 kilometers from the operating Lepanto gold mine, which includes a 900 ktpa underutilized milling facility.

The Mankayan deposit spans roughly 1,100 meters of strike and 600 meters in width, with mineralization open to the north, south and at depth. Over 56,000 meters of diamond drilling has been completed to date, and the deposit hosts a JORC 2012-compliant mineral resource estimate of 793 Mt at 0.37 percent copper and 0.40 grams per ton (g/t) gold, equating to 0.756 percent CuEq. This includes a high-grade core of 170 Mt at 0.48 percent copper and 0.59 g/t gold (1.049 percent CuEq), offering valuable optionality.

Drilling results support Mankayan’s classification as a globally significant resource. Notable historic intercepts include:

• 911 meters at 1 percent CuEq, including 253 meters at 1.43 percent CuEq
• 543 meters at 1.08 percent CuEq, including 277 meters at 1.43 percent CuEq
• 1,119 meters at 0.86 percent CuEq, including 352 meters at 1.15 percent CuEq
• 754 meters at 1.03 percent CuEq, including 430 meters at 1.21 percent CuEq

In July 2025, Blackstone confirmed significant new surface mineralization through historical rock chip samples returning grades up to 6 g/t gold and 1.9 percent copper, and a standout recent drill hole – 432 meters at 1.25 percent CuEq (including 210 meters at 1.60 percent) – further underscoring the project’s scale and growth potential.

A key strategic advantage of Mankayan is its dual development pathway. The high-grade core supports a low-capex startup via selective mining methods, while the bulk of the deposit can be exploited through larger-scale mining scenarios that benefit from lower operating costs and economies of scale. This tiered approach allows Blackstone to balance capital efficiency with long-term growth.

Regulatory and community engagement milestones have also been achieved. The project’s 25-year mineral production sharing agreement was renewed in 2022, and a memorandum of agreement with local Indigenous Peoples was signed in 2024, making Blackstone the first mining company to obtain IP consent in the area. The Mines and Geosciences Bureau of the Philippines has since designated Mankayan as a priority development project.

Mankayan stands out globally when benchmarked against peer porphyry systems. A comparative analysis of undeveloped copper-gold projects ranks it near the top in terms of grade and copper equivalent tonnage, reaffirming its strategic and economic potential on the world stage.

In 2025 and beyond, Blackstone will continue metallurgical testwork, geophysics (including magnetics, IP and electromagnetics), environmental baseline studies, and further drilling to refine and expand the resource. These efforts will support upcoming mining studies and a targeted prefeasibility study.

Ta Khoa

Ta Khoa nickel project in Vietnam

Blackstone Minerals holds a 90 percent interest in the Ta Khoa nickel project, located in the Son La Province of northern Vietnam, about 160 km west of Hanoi. The project comprises the Ban Phuc underground nickel sulphide mine – a modern operation built to Australian standards that operated between 2013 and 2016 – and the adjacent Ta Khoa refinery, currently being developed to produce battery-grade precursor cathode active material (pCAM).

The Ban Phuc mine is currently under care and maintenance but is poised for recommissioning alongside the construction of a concentrator and refinery. The broader Ta Khoa asset base contains probable reserves of 48.7 million tonnes (Mt) at 0.43 percent nickel, equivalent to 210 kilotonnes (kt) of contained nickel. The mining inventory totals 64.5 Mt at 0.41 percent nickel, containing 265 kt of nickel. This figure excludes additional developing prospects such as Ban Khoa.

Over the planned 10-year mine life, Ta Khoa is expected to produce an average of 18 kt of nickel concentrate annually, with the potential to extend well beyond this horizon through integrated refining. The existing infrastructure onsite, including a 450 ktpa mill and a mining camp, provides significant capital efficiency and accelerates time to production.

A recent 12-month pilot program, conducted in partnership with ALS and Wood, successfully demonstrated that Ta Khoa’s hydrometallurgical flowsheet can convert concentrate into nickel sulphate at 99.95 percent purity and 97 percent recovery. This success positions the refinery as a credible supplier to the Asia-Pacific battery supply chain.

The project is further distinguished by its low emissions profile. Independent assessments by Digbee, Minviro, Circulor and an audit by the Nickel Institute have confirmed Ta Khoa as the lowest-emitting pCAM flowsheet in the industry, with carbon intensity of just 9.8 kg CO₂ per kg of pCAM, with opportunities for further reduction.

Blackstone’s development strategy includes flexible feedstock acceptance – from nickel concentrate to black mass – and is strengthened by partnerships with Cavico Laos for third-party supply, Arca Climate Technologies for carbon capture via mineralization, and Limes Renewables to supply clean wind energy. Additionally, the company has secured byproduct offtake arrangements for manganese sulphate and sodium sulphate with VinaChem, PVChem and Nam Phong Green, reinforcing its commitment to full-cycle resource utilization and ESG leadership.

Management Team

Hamish Halliday – Non-executive Chairman

Hamish Halliday is a geologist with over 20 years of corporate and technical experience. He is also the founder of Adamus Resources Limited, an AU$3 million float that became a multimillion-ounce emerging gold producer.

Scott Williamson – Managing Director

Scott Williamson is a mining engineer with a commerce degree from the West Australian School of Mines and Curtin University. He has over 10 years of experience in technical and corporate roles in the mining and finance sectors.

Geoff Gilmour – Non-executive Director

Appointed following Blackstone’s merger with IDM, Geoff Gilmour brings deep experience in Southeast Asian mining ventures. He has held senior roles in exploration and development across copper and gold projects in the Philippines and broader Asia-Pacific.

Tessa Kutscher – Executive

Tessa Kutscher is an executive with more than 20 years of experience in working with C-Level executive teams in the fields of business strategy, business planning/optimisation and change management. After starting her career in Germany, she has worked internationally across different industries, such as mining, finance, tourism and tertiary education.

Lon Taranaki – Executive

Lon Taranaki is an international mining professional with over 25 years of extensive experience in all aspects of resources and mining, feasibility, development and operations. Taranaki is a qualified process engineer from the University of Queensland Australia. He holds a Master of Business Administration, and is a fellow of the Australian Institute of Company Directors. Taranaki has established his career in Asia where he has successfully worked (and lived) across multiple jurisdictions and commodities ranging from technical, mine management and executive management roles.

1. Sociedad Química y Minera (NYSE:SQM)

Year-to-date gain: 10.43 percent
Market cap: US$10.82 billion
Share price: US$40.64

SQM is a major global lithium producer, with operations centered in Chile’s Salar de Atacama. The company extracts lithium from brine and produces lithium carbonate and hydroxide for use in batteries.

SQM is expanding production and holds interests in projects in Australia and China.

Shares of SQM reached a year-to-date high of US$45.61 on March 17, 2025. The spike occurred a few weeks after the company released its 2024 earnings report, which highlighted record sales volumes in the lithium and iodine segments. However, low lithium prices weighed on revenue from the segment, and the company’s reported net profit was pulled down significantly due to a large accounting adjustment related to income tax.

In late April, Chile’s competition watchdog approved the partnership agreement between SQM and state-owned copper giant Codelco aimed at boosting output at the Atacama salt flat. The deal, first announced in 2024, reached another milestone when it secured approval for an additional lithium quota from Chile’s nuclear energy regulator CChEN.

Weak lithium prices continued to weigh on profits, with the company reporting a 4 percent year-over-year decrease in total revenues for Q1 2025.

2. Lithium Americas (NYSE:LAC)

Year-to-date gain: 9.67 percent
Market cap: US$719.1 million
Share price: US$3.29

Lithium Americas is developing its flagship Thacker Pass project in Northern Nevada, US. The project is a joint venture between Lithium Americas at 62 percent and General Motors (NYSE:GM) at 38 percent.

According to the firm, Thacker Pass is the “largest known measured lithium resource and reserve in the world.”

Early in the year, Lithium Americas saw its share rally to a year-to-date high of US$3.49 on January 16, coinciding with a brief rally in lithium carbonate prices.

In March, Lithium Americas secured US$250 million from Orion Resource Partners to advance Phase 1 construction of Thacker Pass. The funding is expected to fully cover development costs through the construction phase. On April 1, the joint venture partners made a final investment decision for the project, with completion targeted for late 2027.

Other notable announcements this year included a new at-the-market equity program, allowing the company to sell up to US$100 million in common shares.

3. Lithium Argentina (NYSE:LAR)

Year-to-date gain: 8.46 percent
Market cap: US$467.28 million
Share price: US$2.90

Lithium Argentina produces lithium carbonate from its Caucharí-Olaroz brine project in Argentina, developed with Ganfeng Lithium (OTC Pink:GNENF,HKEX:1772).

The company is also advancing additional regional lithium assets to support EV and battery demand.

Previously named Lithium Americas (Argentina), the company was spun out from Lithium Americas in October 2023.

While shares of Lithium Argentina spiked in early January to a year-to-date high of US$3.10, the share price has been trending higher since June 19 to its current US$2.90 value.

Notable news from the company this year includes its name and ticker change and corporate migration to Switzerland in late January and the release of the full-year 2024 results in March.

In mid-April, Lithium Argentina executed a letter of intent with Ganfeng Lithium to jointly advance development across the Pozuelos-Pastos Grandes basins in Argentina. The plan includes a project fully owned by Ganfeng as well as two jointly held assets majority-owned by Lithium Argentina.

The company released its Q1 results on May 15, reporting a 15 percent quarter-over-quarter production reduction, which it attributed to planned shutdowns aimed at increasing recoveries and reducing costs.

Overall, the production guidance for 2025 is forecasted at 30,000 to 35,000 metric tons of lithium carbonate, reflecting higher expected production volumes in the second half of the year.